Action Jackson Gambling Diary Vol. 4: Line Shopping the Super Bowl Prop Parlays
Welcome to the fourth installment of the Action Jackson Gambling Diaries. Every Tuesday, I’ll be dipping the pen to track my betting performance and slowly deteriorating mental health. Follow along as I try to make enough money to buy The Odds Factory and change the name to The Evens Factory. Today, we will be talking about my recent triumph betting on the NBA and why you should be shopping for the best lines.
Line Shopping the Super Bowl Prop Parlays
Beginning Balance: 15 Units
Last Week’s Balance: 19.5 Units
This Week’s Balance: 20.5 Units
Total Performance: +5.5 Units
Last Week’s Performance
NBA Betting: +1 Unit
Well, turns out my rantings and ravings finally paid off last week. The NBA is no longer rigged and I have my 1 unit of winnings to show for it. I tip the hat to Adam Silver and the league office for coming to their senses and realizing that they can’t keep blocking me from the riches I deserve. I’ve been leaning very hard on my strategy of following Zach Selwyn’s NBA picks and betting on the Knicks under whenever I can.
Like 90% of my gambling life, this week was a flurry of big wins and big losses (looking at you last night’s Suns-Mavs game that missed the over by half a goddam point) that ended with me essentially breaking even. A whole lot of stress for a very small sum of money is the story of my life and what I’ll be titling my memoir.
To be honest, I’m just glad I made it out of last week alive with my balance intact. This weekend is gigantic for gambling purposes. Here’s how I’m approaching the Super Bowl aka gambling nirvana.
Super Bowl Prop Betting
Everything about the Super Bowl is great – the parties, the commercials, the chance to see The Weeknd perform overtly sexual songs in a family-friendly environment. However, the best part, without a doubt, is all the prop bets.
Like most years, there are a million different props for Sunday’s matchup, from the novelties like “will an offensive lineman score a touchdown” to your standard player props like rushing and receiving yards. It can be a little overwhelming, which is why we’re covering props all week here at The Odds Factory and helping you navigate the options.
Going into the big event, I like to take a deep dive on my favorite kind of bet – the single-game parlay – and figure out how to make the most of my bets by looking at all the different sportsbooks odds. Luckily for you, I’m here to share my findings and educate you on why you should be shopping for the best lines during big events like the Super Bowl.
Why You Should Shop Lines Across Sportsbooks
I have accounts at 5 books, but the two where I spend most of my time are PointsBet and
DraftKings. While it can be a little time-consuming, you should always be looking at different books, shopping for the best lines, odds, and payouts for your bets.
Now, for standard bets like point-spread or over/unders, you generally won’t find much variance since this is where 80% of the market is placing their wagers. You can give a quick glance between your books, but generally speaking, just go with whichever operator you like best because shopping for lines won't show much difference.
However, the real differences come from more specific bets like 1H Point totals or props. And while each bet may only vary slightly, when you start to parlay them together, the differences can really add up. These inter-book odds differences become even more drastic for big events like the Super Bowl for two main reasons.
1. The Number of Bettors
With so many people betting on the game, sportsbooks have to compete to offer the best odds and promotions to get money from hard-working Americans like yourself. There’s value to be had with just a bit of research and shopping for the best lines.
2. The Number of Bets
There are just way more bets overall, which makes it harder for the sportsbooks to have the same odds for every single bet. If you do some digging, you can find specific bets with great odds.
PointsBet and DraftKings Prop Parlay Breakdown
To illustrate my point, I’m going to give a quick breakdown of all the available prop parlays for Sunday’s game. I’ll share the bet, differences in odds between PointsBet and DraftKings, and what that means for a payout (based on a $100 bet) to show how much money you’d leave on the table if you just stuck to one book.
In case you either can’t read or you’re just flat out dumb, every single parlay has variances in odds, some of which are very significant. If leaving money on the table makes you as sick as it makes me, then use my research (or do your own, you lazy sack of shit) and maximize your bets by shopping for the best lines.
Here’s how I’ll be betting, based on the three biggest values that I’m seeing. They’re laid out below in order from least to most confident bets. All three of these odds are with PointsBet, but as you see on the chart, DraftKings has some good odds for other bets as well.
These are very good odds. Like our beloved Tombox algorithm, I’m pretty confident that the Chiefs will end up pulling this one out. If they do, their running game is going to be a big factor in that and will be led by Darrel Williams, who has gone for over 50 yards in both playoff games this year (78 vs. Cleveland and 52 vs. Buffalo) and always seems to raise his game in the playoffs.
However, the KC backfield is healthy for the first time in a while, and I’m a little nervous about Williams getting enough volume to make this bet feasible. It’s hard to turn down +386 though, so I’m wetting my beak with one unit on this bad boy.
Like the Chiefs, the Buccaneers are loaded with skill position players and Evans just might be their most talented. After going for over 1,000 yards and 13 TDs in the regular season, he’s been slowed in their last two playoff games, totaling just 4 catches and 54 yards combined. However, it’s important to keep in mind that he’s not only been battling a knee injury but was also forced to contend with double teams and Jaire Alexander in the Green Bay matchup. With his knee close to 100% this week and no semblance of a shutdown corner on the Kansas City side, expect him to be the primary focus for Brady. If they win, he’ll be a big part of it, so I’m hammering this bet with 3 units.
Payout is a little smaller, but this one just feels right. I know, 100 yards is a lot, but Tyreek Hill is maybe the fastest person since Nelly’s character in The Longest Yard.
||Brady 300+ Passing Yards
||Mahomes 300+ Passing Yards
||Fournette 50+ Rushing Yards
||Jones 50+ Rushing Yard
||Williams 50+ Rushing Yards
||Hill 100+ Receiving Yards
||Kelce 100+ Receiving Yards
||Godwin 75+ Receiving Yards
||Evans 75+ Receiving Yards
||Watkins 50+ Receiving Yards
||Brown 50+ Receiving Yards
Tyreek is averaging 141 yards per game this postseason and an absurd 16.6 yards per catch. Tampa’s defense is solid, but they don’t have anyone who can run with him. While I’m sure they’re going to be focused on stopping him, he’s a threat to break a 50 yarder at any time and 100 yards is within reach. Going big with 4 units on this one and I won’t be talked out of it.
Wish me luck this Super Bowl, and go check out more prop content to get yourself ready to win big on Sunday.