Baltimore Ravens @ Pittsburgh Steelers: Baltimore -3.5

Pittsburgh Steelers at Home are Dogs with Teeth

There’s an old expression in stock trading that says “the trend is your friend” and in this AFC North match-up, there are some huge trends telling you to take the Steelers and the 3 ½ points.

First and foremost, Heinz Field is a tough place to win games. Since 2003 the Steelers are 99-41 for a 70% win percentage. As a home underdog, the Black and Gold are an outstanding 10-4-2 against the spread for a 71% win percentage, the second-best home dog win percentage in the league. The Steelers also hold a 13-7 record at home against the Ravens over the course of their last 20 meetings, clocking in a 65% win percentage.

As if all this wonderful statistical analysis wasn’t enough, I found myself shocked when I saw the Ravens as a 3 ½ point favorite, I figured the game as a pick. The Steelers started the season 0 and 3., but the teams they lost to had combined records of 11-1. The Ravens, who came out of the blocks smoking going 2-0, were against teams that have a combined record of 0-7-1. The Steelers just played their best game of the year waxing the Bengals 27-3 and The Ravens just played their worst, losing to the Brownies at home 40-25.

And just to put a cherry on top of the Steelers our SMI (Smart Money Index) has the game as a +21, indexing them in the top 5% of NFL picks.

Our matrix puts this game at a 64.35% ATS win percentage for The Steelers which makes this a 2 ½ unit game.