Bagels & Locks: Holiday Picks From Your Friends at Bagels & Locks
Welcome to this week’s video from Bagels & Locks, brought to you by The Odds Factory, the #1-Rated Sports Handicappers in all of America! This week, we have the Raiders versus the Chargers and the Texans versus the Buccaneers.
Oakland Raiders @ Los Angeles Chargers: Oakland +6.5
Let’s talk about something that doesn’t exist, the Los Angeles Chargers’ home-field advantage. When the Chargers play a “home” game, more times than not, they have fewer fans in the seats than the opposition, but the bookies still keep giving the Chargers 3-4 points for a “home field advantage” that doesn’t exist.
Their truly abysmal record against the spread while playing at “home" reflects this. In 2019, the Bolts are 1-4-1 against the number, with their only victory coming in their fluke win over the Packers and their record since moving into the StubHub Center (now Dignity Health Park) is 7-13-1. I don’t think it’s going to get any better next year when they move from their current 27,000 seat stadium (in which there might be 10,000 Chargers fans per game) into the cavernous 70,000-seat SoFi Stadium. I don’t think my days of fading the Chargers at home are going to end anytime soon.
Across the field from them on Sunday will be the Oakland Raiders, losers of four straight games. Five weeks ago, the Raiders were a trendy pick to upset the Chiefs and win the AFC West. But then their star running-back rookie Josh Jacobs became injured, and the wheels fell off the Oakland bandwagon.
Jacobs returned last week and so did the Raiders for 55 minutes. For 55 minutes of the game, the Raiders lead the Jaguars 20-6 on the scoreboard and had out-gained them by close to 250 yards. But The Raiders faded badly down the stretch, and the Jags rallied for 2 TDs and shocked the Silver and Black.
I see the Raiders hungry and focused coming off their collapse and beating the Chargers outright on their “Home Field.”
The Pick: Oakland Raiders +6.5
Houston Texans @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Tampa Bay +3.5
I think they should make a public service announcement on ESPN, FOX, and the NFL Network that says “The team with the longest winning streak in the NFC is the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.” They should then follow it up with another public service announcement: “Jameis Winston has thrown for more yards this year than any quarterback in the entire NFL.”
I watch all three of those networks religiously, and I have not heard one word about the Bucs or Jameis Winston. The Bucs have been beating up teams like a young Mike Tyson for the past month, and nary a word has been spoken about the revival by the Bay. It hasn’t just been the offense that has pushed the Bucs through this winning streak. The D, led by Lavonte David, has been tremendous, completely obliterating opponents’ run game and creating turnovers.
Their opponents, the Texans, have been their typical erratic selves once again this year. Beating the Pats one week, getting smoked by the Broncos the next week, and then pulling out a big win on the road over the Titans. There’s a 50% chance the good Texans show up one week and a 50% chance the bad Texans show up. I don’t know for sure which one will show up on Sunday, but with their on-off-on-off pattern, I think they’re going to throw in a stinker on Sunday.
All things considered, if you give me a combo of a red-hot team, playing at home and getting points, I’ll take it every time.
The Pick: Tampa Bay Buccaneers +3.5