Showtime: Two Picks of the Week

November 15, 2019by Matt Segal0
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Showtime: Two Picks of the Week

Houston Texans

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Houston Texans vs. Baltimore Ravens: Houston +4.5

The Texans are 3-0 ATS as a road dog this year, winning 2 out of 3 of those games outright. The Ravens are 1-3 ATS as a home favorite this year. In two games, they've won by less than a TD. And one game they lost outright, letting up 40 points to the Browns.

The Ravens’ stock could not be at a better sell high point. After their embarrassing home loss to the Browns, the Ravens have won 5 games in 6 weeks by an average margin of victory of 15.2. And they've won by 14 or more points in their last three games. Now the Ravens come home to play a Houston Texans team off a bye week who have also been somewhat hot, winning 4 out of their last 5. With these two teams sitting at #2 and #3 right now in the AFC, this game will be a huge one with playoff implications. Seeding may potentially come down to the winner of this game to determine who gets the first-round bye and who is hosting a playoff game in round 1.

Lamar has been great this year, but are his stats skewed? Versus the Dolphins and the Bengals, Lamar has 14.8 YPA, 8 TDs, 0 INTs, and a 158.3 rating. But for his other seven games: 6.8 YPA, 7 TDs, 5 INTs, and an 83.7 rating. He’s having an amazing year, but let’s not pretend like his stats have not been padded by a 59-10 blowout and a 49-13 blowout against two teams that are a combined 2-16.

Out of 32 career games from Watson, he has only lost by more than 4 six times. 81% of his career games he has either won outright or lost by 4 or less. It’s no secret that Watson keeps the Texans in the game, and they are always in it. Grabbing +4.5 on the road here with the Texans off a bye is a great play. The Texans are coming into Baltimore looking to leave with a W and prove why they are the best team in the AFC. 32-27 Texans.

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Ohio State Buckeyes vs. Rutgers Scarlet Knights: Ohio State 1st Half -33

Ohio State has played nine games this season. They have covered the first half number in all nine games this season. OSU is allowing 3.4 points per 1st half this season while scoring 31.4 points per 1st half. The 28-point averaging margin of victory in the 1st half is second-to-none in college football and frankly absurd. Rutgers is averaging only 9.9 1st half points this season, but only 2.8 against Big Ten opponents.

They will now be playing the best defense in the Big Ten, and there is a negative chance of them scoring any points. This spread is simply not large enough, and OSU will easily be up 35-0 or 42-0 at the half.

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