Utah Jazz @ San Antonio Spurs: Utah Jazz -5.5

Point Total: Over 220.5

The Utah Jazz come into San Antonio looking to shake off their 9-point loss (-14 favorites) to the Houston Rockets who didn’t have James Harden. This game has many trends, with strong history to back up my two plays tonight: Utah -5.5 and over 220.5. The last ten times Utah and the Spurs have faced off, the over has hit eight times. The over has also hit for Utah their last five games on the road. Last but not least, in 9 of the last 10 games where Utah has faced a Western Conference opponent, it’s gone over.

Utah bounces back and shoots the ball tonight, and shows why they are the best three-point shooting team in the league. San Antonio is in a slump for sure, losing their last three games, the most recent being on Monday against the scrappy Chicago Bulls in a nail-biter. Rudy Gobert, two-time Defensive Player of the Year, should be able to contain Spurs big man LaMarcus Aldridge. And Donovan Mitchell will look to go toe to toe with DeMar DeRozan and cancel each other’s play. The Spurs outside of those two stars really fall off in their depth. Joe Ingles and company will step up and be the difference for the Jazz.

The league has been in a funk after losing a global icon in Kobe Bryant, and Popovich, in particular, is taking this harder than most. But you can’t bet with heart, which leads to my pick. Utah will come in and continue to pour on the Spurs’ atrocious 3-11 ATS home record against the West. The spread started at -5 and is now -5.5. That builds more confidence behind my pick with that line movement, Utah ATS, and the over. I see a close game to start, but Utah runs away with it in the second half. Let me know if you tail or fade me. And check out the DraftKings banner below to place your bet!