After a long stretch of sports nirvana that included an eventful March Madness and our 2^nd Masters in the last 6 months, we’ve reached a bit of a lull in the sports world. We’re in the dog days of the NBA and NHL regular season and just waiting around for the playoffs to start. The MLB season started, which is great, but it’s still too early to get too invested and we’re still almost two weeks away from the NFL draft. Which makes it the perfect time to start betting the mortgage on a boxing match between a YouTuber and a retired MMA fighter. This Saturday, the notorious Jake Paul, owner of a 2-0 record and savage knockout of the 5’9” washed-up NBA star Nate Robinson will face off against Ben Askren, a 36-year-old former MMA fighter who is competing in his first professional boxing match. Welcome to 2021. While it may sound ridiculous, this is actually shaping up to be a pretty interesting fight. Let’s break down what you need to know before Saturday and how you can make money on it.

Wait a Second, Who Are These Guys?

Don’t worry, we’ll catch you up to speed real quick.

Jake Paul:

• A 24-year-old YouTuber who creates “comedy” videos (very loose term). He has over 20.3 million subscribers and a net worth of at least $11.5 million.
• He started boxing in 2018, when he fought Deji, a British YouTuber, in the undercard for his brother Logan’s (ALSO a YouTuber turned boxer) fight against KSI, who is, you guessed it – another YouTuber. Jake won by TKO in the 5^th.
• Jake just knocked out former three-time NBA Slam Dunk Contest champion Nate Robinson, a man who is a full 4-6 inches shorter than him, in the undercard for the Tyson-Jones Jr. fight earlier this month.
• He’s been calling out people on social media ever since (here’s who we wanted him to fight for our Christmas gift).

Ben Askren:

• A 36-year old former MMA fighter who fought in the UFC and was a champion in Bellator (similar to UFC but more focused on wrestling). Also wrestled for the 2008 US Olympic team and was a two-time NCAA wrestling national champion (4-time finalist) at Missouri.
• As you might be able to guess, Askren is known for his wrestling ability and not his boxing skills. Additionally, he battled hip issues at the end of his career, which led to his retirement in November 2019.
• He’s very unimpressed by Jake Paul and his attempts at shit-talking and boxing in general. He has called Paul “childish” and “too stupid to learn anything” and views the fight as an “easy payday.”

Here’s a summary of the trash-talking that’s gone down for your viewing pleasure. [embed]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CD5U7Mg21ww[/embed]

How Do I Watch the Fight?

Interestingly enough, in addition to the standard cable offerings, the fight will be available for purchase for $49.99 on TrillerFightClub.com, the new fight streaming service that had its first success in November, when it hosted the Mike Tyson vs. Roy Jones Jr. fight. This service aims to give a “more cinematic and entertaining approach to the fight experience," and it might just live up to its promise Saturday. While the fight starts at 9 pm, festivities kick off at 8 pm and feature live performances from Justin Bieber, The Black Keys, Doja Cat, Saweetie, Diplo, Major Lazer, and Mt. Westmore (Snoop Dogg, Ice Cube, Too $hort, and E-40 performing together for the first time). Honestly, that sounds pretty sick, and while I don’t love watching concerts on TV (does anyone?), I’ll at least tune in and give it a chance.

Who Should I Bet On?

Now to the important part…how can you make money on this fight? The answer’s not as simple as you think. Right now, Jake Paul is favored to win the fight at pretty favorable odds (currently -167 at PointsBet). It might be surprising to hear that a YouTuber is favored against an Olympic fighter. But there are a few key reasons why Paul is favored.

1. Askren Can Wrestle…And That’s About It

Look, you can’t deny that Askren is an elite wrestler. It carried him to NCAA championships, spots on the Olympic team, and a Bellator win. But when he was fighting in MMA, Askren almost exclusively relied on the ground game and hardly did any striking. Yes, he’s a professional fighter. But in an upright boxing match, he’s sacrificing all the technique and skill that makes him a great fighter.

2. Askren’s Age and Health

A hip injury is a pretty debilitating thing to come back from, especially at the age of 36. Throughout his career, Askren has always relied on his ability to be in incredible shape to wear down opponents. While I don’t doubt that he’ll be in reasonable shape, he has only had 6 weeks to train. Will that be enough?

3. Jake Paul Is Actually Not That Bad

Say what you want about Jake Paul, but he demolished both of the fighters he went up against. He has 3 inches on Askren, a bunch of weight, and the kind of quick-twitch explosiveness that can lead to knockouts. If Jake Paul starts out fast, he can bury Ben Askren quickly with a flurry of punches and potentially end this thing in the first round.

The Pick:

All that being said, I simply cannot bring myself to bet against the experience of Askren. He has proven himself time and time again and has that champion fighter mentality that you don’t just lose (or pick up with a few years of boxing training like Paul seems to think). I’m not underestimating Paul, but I do think that he’s not fully ready to face someone of Askren’s caliber. Sure, he’s more of a wrestler. But Ben Askren still has fought and beat MMA fighters with striking skills superior to Jake Paul. Like Dana White, I’m betting on Askren to win outright (though I’m not putting $1 million on it). Right now, PointsBet is offering boosted odds to +190 for the outright win and I’ll be hammering that all day. For those of you who are too chickenshit to follow me or bet on a result, I’d also recommend the Total Rounds, Under 5.5 at -134 from BetMGM to hedge. If Paul’s going to win, it’ll happen with a quick KO. Regardless, I don’t know if either guy has the stamina to last more than 5 rounds.