Smart Money NCAA College Basketball Picks For 1/23/2021

January 23, 2021by Lobo Grande0
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Smart Money NCAA College Basketball Picks For 1/23/2021


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Clemson Tigers @ Florida State Seminoles: Seminoles -5.5 (-124)

Very tasty-looking Saturday college hoops slate we have today. The first game I’m looking at is an ACC matchup between Clemson and Florida State. Both of these teams have been solid this season, coming into this game with 9-3 (Clemson) and 8-2 (FSU) records. They already faced off once this season, with Clemson walking away with a victory by 10 points. What’s that? Another REVENGE GAME?! Yep, we’ve got another one. The revenge game narrative isn’t a huge deal here as Clemson was favored by 1.5 in that game and took care of business on their home floor as expected. But it was a conference rivalry game, and you know that the Seminoles are itching to get another shot at them on their home floor.

Against the Spread

A few other factors to consider. Florida State is 4-1 ATS against ACC teams this season, with the only L coming at the hands of Clemson. They have also covered their last three games by an average of 16 points per game. They are coming into this one hot and get a shot at the Tigers on their home floor. Conversely, we have Clemson limping into this one, not covering the spread in any of their last four games. They had their doors blown off by Virginia last weekend and lost by 35. They followed that up with a stinker against Georgia Tech on Wednesday, where they lost by 18. Now, they walk into Tallahassee where FSU is 5-3 ATS. I think the Seminoles’ offense is going to be too much for Clemson to handle today. Their offense is red hot, averaging 88.3 PPG over their last three. I feel good about them covering 5.5 today.

The Pick: FSU -5.5 (-124)

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Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets @ Virginia Cavaliers: Over 124.5 (-105)

It’s a great day to bet the ACC! When you see we’re betting on a game total that involves Virginia, I’m sure you assume it’s the under. You know what they say about assuming. I’m keeping everyone on their toes today and actually leaning OVER in this matchup. Hear me out – Virginia is not the under machine it has been in years’ past. The over has hit in six out of their 11 games this season, and they are scoring a respectable 73.5 PPG, good for 113th in the nation. Not bad. They have also obliterated the over in their past two games. 10 days ago, against Notre Dame, the over hit by a cool 25 points. Last Saturday, their game against Clemson went over by 18. The Cavaliers hit the 80-mark in both of those games, something that seemed unheard of over the past few years. Today they are hosting a Georgia Tech team that can score the ball. Georgia Tech comes into this one as a top-25 scoring team in the country, averaging 80.4 PPG.

Making Their Possessions Count

What I like about both teams is that they make their possessions count. Virginia is 9th in the nation in shooting percentage, and Georgia Tech is tied for 33rd. When betting overs, we obviously want every possession to count as much as possible and we don’t have time for bricks. Virginia also shoots 80.2% from the free-throw line, which is a big reason why they are hitting overs at the rate that they are. I always like when the favorite is a strong free-throw-shooting team when I’m betting an over. One thing you always need to be cautious of when betting Virginia is their defense. Yes, they are scoring more this season than we are accustomed to, but their defense is still as solid as ever, allowing the 5th least points of any team in the nation this season. As a big home favorite, I get a little nervous they will put the clamps down, but I’m willing to bet on Georgia Tech’s strong offense being able to do their part, and Virginia taking care of business on offense against a very unimpressive Georgia Tech defense.

The Pick: Over 124.5 (-105)

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