TomBox Sports Betting Algorithm Picks For Tonight’s NCAA Tournament Action For Sunday 3/28/2021

March 28, 2021by Shlomo Sprung0
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TomBox Sports Betting Algorithm Picks For Tonight’s NCAA Tournament Action For Sunday 3/28/2021

TomBox Sports Betting Algorithm Picks For Tonight’s NCAA Tournament Action For Sunday 3/28/2021: Evan Mobley - Oregon Ducks @ USC Trojans

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After an action-packed Saturday, the NCAA Tournament completes its Sweet Sixteen games today with two number one seeds going after it as well as an all Pac-12 affair. What can we expect from a betting standpoint?

There’s no longer any need for guesswork because our TomBox AI algorithm is here. It already simulated each game thousands of times to provide the most educated bets and picks out there. If you’re still reading this, get ready to profit!

Best Moneyline Picks

UCLA Bruins @ Alabama Crimson Tide: Alabama ML (-300)

Bad news for the Bruins: they finally have to play an elite team. BYU was very good, but Michigan State in the First Four game shouldn’t have made the field, and Abilene Christian was a nice story but not legit.

Alabama is gonna create separation from the Bruins here from the three-point range, hitting 10.6 triples to UCLA’s 5.4. The rest of the signifiers aren’t too skewed, but every edge goes to the Crimson Tide. The TomBox algorithm projects a 77.5-69 win for Bama, giving a win for the 2-seed a 69.6% chance of happening.

Oregon Ducks @ USC Trojans: USC ML (-139)

The dominance of the Pac-12 in this tournament has never been more evident than this matchup. Both teams had incredibly impressive second-round wins, with Oregon taking out Iowa and USC completely dominating Kansas. But the Mobley brothers and their interior presence will go a long way toward providing the difference here.

The Trojans are expected to have the advantage in shooting percentage, 46.9% to the Ducks’ 40.9% and a 35.6-31.1 rebounding edge. The TomBox algorithm gives USC a 60.3% chance to win, predicting a 73.7-70.3 margin.

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Best Spread Picks

Creighton Bluejays @ Gonzaga Bulldogs: Gonzaga -13 (-110)

We here at The Odds Factory want a challenge. And taking Gonzaga to win -1000 moneyline isn’t one of them and isn’t even a lucrative bet. But we’re getting good odds on them covering the spread and we’re gonna gladly take them.

TomBox expects the Zags to shoot a scorching 55.6% from the field, commit just 9.5 turnovers, and have a 33.6-24.5 rebounding advantage. We’ve got a 89.3-73.2 win for Gonzaga to keep their undefeated run alive and a 57% chance to cover the baker’s dozen.

Florida State Seminoles @ Michigan Wolverines: Florida State +2.5 (-120)

Michigan has a 53.1% chance to win this game, but it’s essentially a toss-up. Florida State has a slight 46.3-45.4 field goal percentage edge, but the Wolverines have the 31.9-31 rebounding edge. Michigan will hit more three-pointers and also turn the ball over more. The TomBox algorithm projects a 73.3-72.3 game, within the 2.5-point spread the Seminoles need to cover.

Best Over/Under Picks

Creighton Bluejays @ Gonzaga Bulldogs: Over 158 (-110)

It’ll be close, but the Bluejays scoring 70+ points on this Gonzaga defense is why the TomBox algorithm gives the over a 56% chance of coming through here. Creighton is expected to make 8.6 three-pointers and 45.7% from the field to make this a high-scoring college game.

Oregon Ducks @ USC Trojans: Over 138 (-110)

This one will also be close, but our projected scoreline gets the game over 140 and wins you more cash. Both teams are in the lower half of KenPom’s adjusted tempo metric, but the teams are projected to make a combined 17 three-pointers, the most of any Sunday game.

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