Free Picks for College Football Week 2 Games For 9/11/2021
Jake’s Season Record: 2-1; +1.71 Units
Let's go! I gave out three picks last week and went 2-1, including an underdog pick of Penn State ML at +180. On the season, that leaves me +1.71 units this college football season.
Week 2 brings some juicy matchups in the Top 25. Most Power Five schools will have a tune-up game against a mid-major school. But we still have an early Saturday ranked game between the #12 Oregon Ducks and #3 Ohio State Buckeyes kicking off at noon eastern. Now that we have a feel for some teams after Week 1, it's time to test those assumptions and see who stays on track heading into the rest of the season and who possibly stumbles.
In this post, I'll mainly be looking at the point spread, moneyline, and over/unders, but as we approach game time, I'll be posting additional picks on my Twitter @SnakeJiggs.
All lines in this article are referencing the BetMGM Sportsbook. NOW LET'S TALK FOOTBALL
Free Picks for College Football Week 2
12:00 PM EST Saturday, September 11th, 2021
Both the Oregon Ducks and the Ohio State Buckeyes have a new quarterback under center this year. And we caught first glimpses of Oregon senior Anthony Brown Jr. and Ohio State freshman C.J. Stroud in Week 1.
It's a massive Week 2 test for the Oregon Ducks after a fourth-quarter comeback earned a Week 1 31-24 win against Fresno State. The Ducks were a 19-point favorite in that game.
Meanwhile, the Ohio State offense was on full display in Week 1 during a 45-31 win over Minnesota. Depending on where/when the bet was placed, Ohio State
covered the spread. Ohio State floated from -13.5 to -14.5 favorites in the lead up to the game and the closing line was -14.
point spread has Ohio State favored by -14.5, the over/under at 64, and OSU a -750 favorite on the
As of Thursday, I am loving this over. Let's start with the fact that Ohio State scored 45 points in Week 1, and the Oregon defense did not shut down Fresno State. So I wouldn't be surprised to see Ohio State potentially reach 40+ points again in this matchup.
To me, the only question about the over is the Oregon offense. Anthony Brown Jr. said in the press conference after the Week 1 win that "[the offense] wasn't clean enough" in the game. If the Ducks sharpen things up this week and execute against an Ohio State defense that allowed 31 points, then this over should easily be in play.
2:30 PM EST Saturday, September 11th, 2021
Notre Dame escaped with a win on Sunday night in Tallahassee. And now the Fighting Irish host the Toledo Rockets on Saturday. Notre Dame is a 17-point favorite at home, and there is good reason for it despite allowing a comeback in Week 1 that forced overtime.
The big thing here is that Toledo does not have the magic of McKenzie Milton like Florida State had. Notre Dame played three really strong quarters of football but allowed 18 points to be scored in the fourth. I expect them to address that this week, and the Notre Dame defense should be on point all four quarters.
I am also sold on Jack Coan as the quarterback for Notre Dame. And I think he has also the weapons around him to be an offensive threat every week. Coan will only get more comfortable, too, as he gets more game time with his new team.
Toledo does come into this game 1-0, with a 49-10 win against Norfolk State in Week 1. The Rockets showed a balanced offense with 236 passing yards and 205 rushing yards.
Overall, Notre Dame had an 18-point lead heading into the fourth quarter of Week 1. So I expect Notre Dame to have full control again heading into the final quarter against Toledo.
If the Fighting Irish play a full four quarters of football, then that -17 spread should end up easy money.
4:30 PM EST Saturday, September 11th, 2021
It's the battle for Iowa, and a Top 10 matchup as well! This is the 68th time the two schools face each other, and Iowa holds a 45-22 all-time record over Iowa State.
The unique 2020 season due to COVID-19 meant these two teams did not get to play last year, snapping a yearly tradition that goes back to 1977. Even in recent years, Iowa has dominated the matchup, winning five straight and seven of the past ten.
This should be a close game, and with the rivalry implications, I am staying away from the spread that has Iowa State favored by -4.5. That history that I laid out may even make it tempting to bet on Iowa ML at +155
. But I'm really only looking at the over/under in a matchup that I think can go either way. It currently sits at 46.5 points.
One thing I see this game having is a lot of defense. Iowa beat ranked Indiana 34-6 in Week 1, and Iowa State beat Northern Iowa 16-10.
I like the under here. Normally, I am a stickler when it comes to taking unders, but I am expecting a ground and pound rivalry game that should be fierce, competitive, and in front of a packed house at Kinnick Stadium. Both Iowa State and Iowa barely eclipsed 300 yards of offense on the day, while holding opposing offenses under 300 yards. I think first downs and points are going to be hard to come by in this one, so I am taking Under 46.5.
Other Games of Interest
Some other games that I am looking at are Friday's game between Kansas and #17 Coastal Carolina, Appalachian State and #22 Miami, and several more.
So join me in the conversation on Twitter @SnakeJiggs and let me know what lines have caught your eye heading into Saturday!