Free Picks for College Football Week 3 Games For 9/18/2021
September 16, 2021
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Jake’s Season Record: 3-3
So, I am 3-3 to start the season, not bad – but it hurts after losing by the hook on the Oregon versus Ohio State over last week. I'm ready to get my winning record back in Week 3, and now that we have some data from this season, we can really start to analyze some of these lines. Let’s just jump right in.Free Picks for College Football Week 3
Nebraska Cornhuskers @ #3 Oklahoma Sooners: Oklahoma -22 (-115); Over 61.5 (-115)
12:00 PM EST Saturday, September 18th, 2021
An old rivalry is renewed on Saturday when the Nebraska Cornhuskers visit an old Big 8 conference opponent, the Oklahoma Sooners. The Oklahoma Sooners have had more success than the Cornhuskers since Nebraska moved to the Big Ten, and the two teams have not played each other since 2010. Oklahoma holds the series lead with a record of 45-38-3. The Sooners are also the ranked team and the favorite in this game. #3 Oklahoma is a 22-point favorite on BetMGM, and I don't expect that number to get down to -21 before Saturday. The Sooners sweat out a 40-35 win over Tulane before sharpening things up with a 76-0 win over Western Carolina. Meanwhile, the Huskers lost the season opener against Illinois before earning two bounceback wins against Fordham and Buffalo. If this game was at Memorial Stadium in Lincoln, Nebraska, then I would consider taking the +22, but with the Huskers on the road at Memorial Stadium in Norman, Oklahoma, I can't take the underdog on the spread. Both defenses will be facing off against offenses with over 500 yards per game, and with the over/under listed at 61.5, I definitely see this over being in play. I am actually making two picks in this game. I'm taking Oklahoma -22 (-115) and Over 61.5 (-115). I will note that I would take Oklahoma up to -24 and the over up to 63.#16 Coastal Carolina Chanticleers @ Buffalo Bulls: Over 58 (-105)
12:00 PM EST Saturday, September 18th, 2021
The Chanticleers are goooooooooood. Don't believe it? Then stay off of betting on this game and just watch it for fun. But Grayson McCall and Coastal Carolina are going to make headlines again this year and I'm a believer. Coming off of a massive 49-22 win over Power 5 opponent Kansas, Coastal Carolina should be riding high into Buffalo. The Chanticleers are -14 favorites, and the public is flooding this line right now. Currently, 91% of bets are on Coastal Carolina at -14, and typically that is not the side we want to bet. There is a reason there is a city in the middle of the desert in Nevada. Betting with the public typically isn't the smart call. That's sad too because I love the -14 line, but the smart thing to do is stay away here. Instead, the over/under sits at 58 and that has my attention. Buffalo showed the ability to score with 69 points against Wagner in Week 1, but only put up three points in last week's loss to Nebraska. Buffalo's offense still averages over 400 yards of offense, though, and didn't have trouble moving the ball against Nebraska – the Bulls just couldn't find the end zone. Meanwhile, Coastal Carolina's defense let The Citadel score 14 points and Kansas score 22 points. It doesn't seem like Coastal Carolina cares, though, because the team scored around 50 points in both games. I expect a bounce back from Buffalo's offense and continued success from the Chanticleers' offense in this one so Over 58 (-105) is the play here.
#22 Auburn Tigers @ #10 Penn State Nittany Lions: Penn State -5 (-105); Over 53 (-115)
7:30 PM EST Saturday, September 18th, 2021
Primetime in Happy Valley between two Top 25 opponents. This has the makings to be the game of the night. Both teams are led by seasoned quarterbacks who are now the starting quarterback for the third year in a row. Bo Nix and Sean Clifford are sure to be the headlining acts in this game, but the defenses could easily steal the show as well. Auburn leads the nation, allowing just 5.0 points per game through the first two games of the season. And Penn State’s defense has shown one of the better pass defenses in the country to start the season. The difference here is that this is Auburn’s first real test. The Tigers faced Akron and Alabama State to start the season, winning both games by 50+ points. On the other side, the Nittany Lions tested themselves early and upset a ranked Wisconsin team (a moneyline pick that I made in Week 1) and a strong win over last year’s MAC champion Ball State. So this game will say a lot about Auburn who was able to sneak into the Top 25 this week. I can’t back an unknown like that though. Penn State’s senior leadership from Clifford was the difference-maker against Wisconsin, and he will have a sold-out Beaver Stadium behind him all night. Nix, on the other hand, will have a tough night. And he typically does on the road against a ranked opponent. Last year, Auburn went 1-4 against ranked opponents, and Nix struggled against Alabama, Georgia, and Texas A&M. Truth be told, I don’t believe in Nix. Not on the road, not against a ranked opponent, and not in Primetime. Penn State -5 (-110) is going to be the play here, and I am also leaning toward Over 53 (-110) because both of these offenses have shown the ability to put up 40+ points. I’m looking for that Over/Under to potentially drop a point before I find myself on it though.Jake’s Stay Away Games
There are a few games that I think could be traps and I won’t be touching. One is the #8 Cincinnati @ Indiana game. Cincinnati is a massive public favorite over Indiana, and that makes me wary right now. Another game I don’t like is the Tulsa @ #9 Ohio State game. Tulsa was upset in Week 1 but played better than expected in Week 2, so I’m not sure what we see from them here. Ohio State coming off a loss is tempting to bet on, but with that line at -24.5, I’m not risking it. One final game I am staying away from is #15 Virginia Tech @ West Virginia. This line reeks to high heaven. The Hokies are the ranked undefeated team, yet the Mountaineers are the favorites in this game? Something doesn’t feel right here and I don’t like it. Stay away. I’ll surely be making some more picks as we get closer to Saturday too, so join me on Twitter @SnakeJiggs and let me know if you are riding with me or fading me.
