Smart Money MLB Picks For 9/14/2020

September 14, 2020by Mike Barner1
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Smart Money MLB Picks For 9/14/2020

MLB Regular Season - Ronald Acuña Jr. - Atlanta Braves @ Baltimore Orioles

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We only have two weeks left in the MLB regular season. So the time is now to try and cash in on as many appealing wagers as we can. We’ve had a good start considering that I am 53-22-1 with my recommendations. So let’s try to keep things rolling with Monday’s limited slate. Because of so many day games and doubleheaders, I’m focusing all four of my wagers to consider on one game. All odds were obtained from the BetMGM Sportsbook.

Atlanta Braves @ Baltimore Orioles: Braves Over 5.5 Runs (-109)

The Braves have a great lineup that has generated the highest OPS (.834) in baseball. They have averaged 5.9 runs a game during the MLB regular season and are at full strength right now with Ozzie Albies returning from the IL last week. The layoff doesn’t seem to have hurt him any considering he is 8-for-22 (.364) with two home runs and a double across five games since being activated.

This is a great opportunity for the Braves to keep things rolling with Jorge López expected to start for the Orioles. In his last three outings, he has allowed 11 runs (eight earned) across 14 1/3 innings. He doesn’t record a lot of strikeouts, and he has a 5.95 ERA and a 1.49 WHIP for his career. So look for the Braves to have an offensive explosion here.

Atlanta Braves @ Baltimore Orioles: Orioles Over 4.5 Runs (+114)

The Orioles are coming off of a rough four-game series with the Yankees in which they scored a total of three runs while being swept. However, two of those games were limited to seven innings with the teams playing a doubleheader Friday. Still, their bats going cold proved ill-timed, since they had a chance to pass the Yankees in the MLB regular season standings and move into a playoff spot. Their odds are grim now with their record sitting at 20-26.

As bad as they performed over the weekend, the Orioles still have the 13th-highest OPS (.752) in baseball, which is actually just behind the Yankees (.760) and just ahead of the Twins (.749). This should be a favorable spot for their bats to move back on track with Touki Toussaint set to start for the Braves. He has played terribly this season, allowing 19 earned runs and recording a 1.52 WHIP across 21 2/3 innings. At plus odds, the over could be a risk worth taking.

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Atlanta Braves @ Baltimore Orioles: Ronald Acuña Jr. Over 0.5 Hits (-250)

Acuña had a brief scare when he fouled a ball off of his foot Friday. But he should be fine moving forward since he played both Saturday and Sunday. He has been a bit of a disappointment in the batting average department at .267 this season. But his overall .414 OBP has been outstanding. With how poorly López has pitched and his inability to generate strikeouts, I’ll take Acuña to hit the over here, even though the odds aren’t that great.

Atlanta Braves @ Baltimore Orioles: Marcell Ozuna Over 0.5 Total Runs Batted In (-137)

I took the over on this prop Thursday, and Ozuna failed to come through. He followed up by driving in at least one run in each of the next three games, giving him 43 RBI in 47 games this season. With two high on-base hitters in Acuña and Freddie Freeman hitting in front of him in the lineup and López on the mound, I like Ozuna to come through for us this time.

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