Smart Money MLB Picks For 9/17/2020

September 17, 2020by Mike Barner1
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Smart Money MLB Picks For 9/17/2020

Clint Frazier - New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays

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The New York Yankees came through for us Wednesday, but the White Sox were a flop, which left me with a 2-2 record for my picks. Overall, I’m now 56-27-1 for the MLB season. We have a limited slate of games Thursday, but I still have four wagers for you to consider. All odds were obtained from the BetMGM Sportsbook.

New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays: Yankees ML (-225)

The Yankees are getting hot with the playoffs approaching. They have won seven straight games to move back into second place in the AL East and are now only three games behind the Rays for the division lead. They have loved playing at Yankee Stadium, posting a 20-7 record there compared to an 8-14 mark on the road. The Twins have been excellent in their new make-shift home park in Buffalo, but they have not played as well on the road at 14-15.

The Yankees have the advantage in starting pitchers for this game with Masahiro Tanaka facing off against Chase Anderson. Tanaka has allowed two earned runs or fewer in seven of his eight starts, while Anderson has a 5.81 ERA and a 5.28 FIP. We get a little better odds here than last night, too, so I’ll take the Yankees to win again.

New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays: Yankees Over 5.5 Runs (-112)

The Yankees received even more reinforcements for their lineup Wednesday with Aaron Judge being activated from the IL. They went on to score 13 runs in that contest and have scored 33 runs in the first two games of this series. Playing this game at Yankee Stadium gives their offense a significant boost since they have a .886 OPS there this season. We don’t get plus odds this time around, but I still like the Yankees to hit the over.

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New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays: Clint Frazier Over 0.5 Hits (-157)

Frazier has rattled off three straight multi-hit games to raise his batting average to .303 for the season. Several Yankees have some pretty extreme home/road splits, but few are as drastic as Frazier’s given that he is batting .344 at home and .237 on the road. With opponents batting .303 against Anderson this season, Frazier could be in line for another productive evening.

Cleveland Indians @ Detroit Tigers: Under 7.5 Total Runs (-117)

The Indians are in a free-fall right now, having lost eight straight games. Their lineup has been underwhelming for most of the season, averaging only four runs per contest. The Tigers haven’t been much better by averaging 4.4 runs a night. Their lineup proves further compromised right now with Jonathan Schoop (wrist) on the IL. Although he’s not a flashy name, he’s been one of their offensive leaders, hitting .278 with eight home runs and 23 RBI.

Further complicating matters for the Tigers is that they will have to face Shane Bieber, who hasn’t allowed more than three runs in a start this season. The last time he faced them, he recorded 11 strikeouts across seven scoreless innings. The Indians don’t exactly have a tough matchup against Casey Mize given his 5.85 ERA. But his FIP has been better at 4.84, and he is one of the more highly-regarded pitching prospects in baseball. Given the Indians’ offensive struggles and the Tigers having to face Bieber, this has the makings of a low-scoring affair.

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