Smart Money MLB Picks For Tuesday 4/13/2021
Mike’s Season Record: 4-2
Our first week of MLB wagers was a successful one after I went 4-2 with my picks. I’ll try to keep things rolling Tuesday with the following three wagers to consider. All odds were obtained from the BetMGM Sportsbook.
This is a matchup between two teams heading in opposite directions. The Padres loaded up for what they hope will be a deep playoff run, adding Blake Snell, Yu Darvish, and Joe Musgrove to their starting rotation. Meanwhile, the Pirates continued to strip down their roster, which included sending Musgrove to the Padres and Josh Bell to the Nationals. These moves have yielded an 8-3 record for the Padres and a 3-7 record for the Pirates out of the gate.
Snell will take the mound Tuesday after allowing just two runs across 9 2/3 innings in his first two starts. While he’s had trouble pitching deep into games during his career, the Padres have a strong bullpen behind him, which includes Mark Melancon, Emilio Pagán, and Drew Pomeranz. With their offense set up to potentially thrive against Pirates’ starter Chad Kuhl, who has a career 1.42 WHIP, the Padres should be able to come away with a victory here.
The Cubs’ lineup has been terrible in the early going, averaging just 2.9 runs per game. They’ve had a lot of problems making contact, leaving them with the eighth-most strikeouts in baseball. That could be a problem for this matchup against Brandon Woodruff, who has a career 27.4 percent strikeout rate. When the Milwaukee Brewers faced the Chicago Cubs last week, Woodruff had eight strikeouts across seven scoreless innings.
The Brewers haven’t been great offensively, either, striking out the third-most times in baseball to go along with a team OPS of just .637. They will also face a tough starting pitcher in Kyle Hendricks, who shut them out across six innings earlier this season. In fact, Woodruff and Kendricks faced each other in that game, which the Brewers won 4-2 in 10 innings. Expect their rematch to also be a low-scoring affair.
The actual total runs listed for this game is 7.0. That’s because we could be looking at a pitcher’s duel between Shane Bieber and Lucas Giolito. Bieber was masterful last season with a 1.63 ERA and a 41.1 percent strikeout rate. Giolito was also excellent with a 3.48 ERA and a 33.7 percent strikeout rate.
The reason why I want to go with the alternate total is to build us a little cushion. Giolito hasn’t exactly been great out of the gate. In what should have been a favorable matchup against the Mariners in his last outing, he allowed three runs across 5 1/3 innings. Even Bieber has allowed five total runs across his two starts. Buying the extra half run could help us turn a potential push into a profitable wager.