Smart Money MLB Picks For Wednesday 4/14/2021
April 14, 2021
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Mike’s Season Record: 6-3
Mike’s Twitter: @rotomikebarner
We hit on a couple of unders on our way to a 2-1 record Tuesday. For the season, my overall record is now 6-3. I’ll try to keep things rolling with the following three wagers to consider for Wednesday. All odds were obtained from the BetMGM Sportsbook.San Diego Padres @ Pittsburgh Pirates: Padres ML (-200)
The Padres’ moneyline was the one wager that I lost Tuesday. Blake Snell didn’t even make it out of the first inning, digging a hole for the Padres that they couldn’t make their way out of. They did have their chances, though, considering that they left 15 men on base in the 8-4 defeat. Look for the Padres to bounce back with a win here behind Joe Musgrove, who is coming off the first no-hitter in the team’s history. He threw a reasonable 112 pitches in the game against the Rangers. So he shouldn’t have any limitations heading into this matchup. Also, his no-hitter came on the heels of him shutting out the Diamondbacks across six innings in his season opener.Miami Marlins @ Atlanta Braves: Braves Over 4.5 Runs (-130)
The Miami Marlins have won the first two games of this series, which has contributed to three straight losses for the Atlanta Braves. The Braves’ pitching was the culprit Tuesday in what turned out to be a 14-8 loss. It was encouraging to see the Braves score eight runs, though, after behind held to just three runs in the series opener. Make no mistake about it, the Braves have one of the more potent lineups in the National League. Behind Ronald Acuña Jr. and Freddie Freeman, they've scored at least five runs in four of their last five games. Look for their bats to keep rolling against Nick Neidert, who has very little experience in the majors. He has pitched a total of 12 2/3 innings with the Marlins the last two seasons, registering a 4.26 ERA and 1.58 WHIP. Across 41 career innings in Triple-A, he had a 5.05 ERA and 1.63 WHIP.
Seattle Mariners @ Baltimore Orioles: Over Alternate Total 8.5 Runs (-145)
These two teams split a pair of games in Tuesday’s doubleheader after Monday’s series opener was postponed because of weather. Despite the seven-inning game formats for doubleheaders, the teams combined for at least seven runs in both games. That shouldn’t come as a major surprise given that these are two underwhelming pitching staffs. Runs could be easy to come by again Wednesday with Matt Harvey taking on Justin Dunn. Dunn has a career 1.44 WHIP, which could be a recipe for disaster at the Orioles’ hitter-friendly home park. Harvey is doing his best to hang onto a job in the majors, but he has allowed six runs and 15 base runners across 9 2/3 innings in his first two starts with the Orioles. He has also struggled to keep men off base, posting a WHIP of at least 1.47 in four of his last five seasons. The books have set the actual line on this at 9.0 runs, but I’ll buy the half point to create some breathing room.
