Smart Money MLB Picks For Wednesday 4/21/2021
Mike’s Season Record: 8-6
A meltdown by the Phillies’ bullpen left me with a 1-2 mark for my picks Tuesday. For the season, my overall record sits at 8-6. I’ll try to get back on the winning track with the following three MLB wagers to consider for Wednesday. All odds were obtained from the BetMGM Sportsbook.
We took the under on this same alternate run line Tuesday and cashed with ease. The Yankees’ offensive malaise continued when they scored just three runs. They still have the worst OPS (.640) in baseball as their power-laden lineup just can’t seem to put things together. With that being said, they still earned the win thanks to the Braves scoring only one run of their own.
The Braves could continue to have a difficult time scoring runs if Ronald Acuña Jr. (abdomen) is out again. They have an off-day Thursday, so I expect them to be cautious with their star and sit him out Wednesday. The actual total runs line for this game is set at 9.0, but I’ll buy the half run to help our cause.
With Acuña out, Freeman is the clear driving force behind the Braves’ lineup. He’s coming off of a stellar 2020 campaign in which he hit .341 with a staggering .462 OBP. He’s a career .294 hitter, so don’t expect him to maintain his current .233 average for very long. He only has a 9.3% strikeout rate this season, so most of his troubles can likely be attributed to his abnormally low .188 BABIP.
Even with his struggles out of the gate, Freeman still has at least one hit in nine of his last 11 games. Look for him to get at least one hit here against Corey Kluber, who looks like a shell of his former self. Across his first three starts with the Yankees, he has allowed a whopping 46.9% hard-hit rate, which has contributed to his 2.23 WHIP.
Last season was one to forget for Bryant. He had never hit below .272 for his career, but he finished 2020 with a lackluster .206 average. His strikeout rate jumped up to 27.2% and his power numbers plummeted, leaving him with a career-low .145 ISO. His .264 BABIP was over 70 points lower than his career mark, some of which can be attributed to his career-low 31.9% hard-hit rate.
Even with Bryant’s poor overall production last season, he still hit .286 with a .374 wOBA against left-handed pitchers. For his career, he has hit .301 with a .415 wOBA against them. Look for him to get a hit here with David Peterson set to take the mound for the Mets. The young left-handed pitcher has only pitched a total of 59 2/3 innings above Double-A and didn’t miss a ton of bats during his time in the minors.