Smart Money MLB Picks For Tuesday 4/27/2021
Mike’s Season Record: 10-7
Monday brings a packed slate of 15 games in Major League Baseball. I’ll try to improve on my season record of 10-7 with the following three wagers to consider. All odds were obtained from the BetMGM Sportsbook.
The Red Sox may have a lack of quality starting pitchers, but their lineup is certainly potent. They have a .794 OPS, which is the highest mark in baseball. Not only that, but they have struck out the ninth-fewest times. Their lineup has been led by J.D. Martinez, who won’t have the luxury of serving as the DH for this game with the contest being played in New York. Still, the Red Sox might find a way to get him into the lineup by playing him in the outfield.
If Martinez plays, the Red Sox could blow past this number. Even if he doesn’t though, they have a favorable matchup against David Peterson. The Mets’ former first-round pick is off to a rough start, allowing at least six runs in two of his first three starts. His problem has been keeping hitters inside the ballpark, allowing three home runs across 13 1/3 innings.
Bogaerts hasn’t exactly struggled against right-handed pitchers, posting a .285 batting average and a .339 wOBA against them for his career. However, he’s been even better versus lefties with a .310 average and a .371 wOBA. Add this favorable matchup against Peterson to Bogaerts having recorded at least one hit in 16 of his last 18 games and this is a
wager to pursue, despite the unappealing odds.
Giolito was hammered in his last outing, allowing eight runs over one inning against the Red Sox. Given that his ERA and FIP have both been below 3.50 in back-to-back seasons, there’s no need for concern over one bad outing. Prior to that matchup, he had recorded 26 strikeouts over 17 2/3 innings in his first three starts. That came on the heels of him posting a strikeout rate of at least 32.3 percent in both of the last two seasons.
Given Giolito’s strikeout prowess and favorable odds, I would like to take a chance on the over here. The Tigers have a terrible lineup, which has contributed to them posting the fourth-most strikeouts in the league. In two starts against the Tigers last season, Giolito recorded 20 strikeouts over 12 2/3 innings. If he can pitch six or seven innings, he could reach double-digits in the strikeout department.