Smart Money MLB Picks For Wednesday 4/28/2021
Mike’s Season Record: 10-10
The Red Sox offense came up short Tuesday and Lucas Giolito faltered late, leaving me with an 0-3 mark with my picks. For the season, my record is now 10-10. I’ll look to bounce back with the following three MLB wagers to consider for Wednesday. All odds were obtained from the BetMGM Sportsbook.
The Cardinals have been decent offensively out of the gate, scoring the 12th-most runs in baseball. That’s despite disappointing starts from Paul Goldschmidt and Nolan Arenado, neither of whom has an OPS above .765. In fact, Goldschmidt’s OPS is just .612, which would be the lowest mark of his career by a wide margin. One of the players who has helped carry the team while they struggle has been Dylan Carlson. The promising young outfielder, who had a .681 slugging percentage at Triple-A in 2019, has burst out of the gate with a .526 slugging percentage this season.
The reason the over is appealing here is not because Goldschmidt and Arenado are due to break out, but because Vince Velazquez will be starting for the Phillies. He has never finished with an ERA below 4.12, and his ERA has been at least 4.85 in each of the last four seasons. A lot of that has to do with his career 1.39 WHIP. I like the Cardinals’ chance of hanging a crooked number on the scoreboard here.
It took three runs in the 10th inning to do so, but the Rockies pulled off a
win against the Giants on Tuesday. That’s noteworthy because prior to that contest, the Rockies had lost each of their first seven games on the road. Most of their struggles there can be attributed to their lineup posting a paltry .544 OPS away from hitter-friendly Coors Field.
Prior to their extra-inning collapse, the Giants had been 9-2 at home. They will look to bounce back with Alex Wood on the mound, who has only allowed one run across his first two starts. Although the Rockies will be starting their ace Germán Márquez, they lost 4-0 the last time he took the hill in San Francisco. Look for the Giants to bounce back with a win.
Alex Cobb’s first three starts are a perfect picture of how crazy early stats can be. His ERA is 6.28, but his FIP is excellent at 2.52. He has allowed an abnormally-high .436 BABIP, but he has only allowed one home run across 14 1/3 innings. Finally, his strikeout rate sits at 30.9 percent, which is significantly higher than his career strikeout rate of 18.9 percent.
As the season wears on, look for both Cobb’s ERA and strikeout rate to decline. His general inability to miss bats makes this an intriguing wager given that Solak also doesn’t swing and miss much, posting a career 21.2 percent strikeout rate. He has started off the season by hitting .307, which has included him registering at least one hit in 10 of his last 12 games. I like his chances of getting another hit in this matchup between the Texas Rangers and Los Angeles Angels.