TomBox Sports Betting Algorithm MLB Picks For Monday 4/12/2021
April 12, 2021
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Season Record: 4-2
The TomBox algorithm is off to a solid start, with solid showings on Friday and Sunday. So why not keep it going and win some Monday money with the help of our AI algorithm. We simulate each game 10,000 times so you don’t have to. And this service is free? Take advantage before we change our mind!Top Moneyline Pick
Detroit Tigers @ Houston Astros: Houston ML (-250)
To begin with, the TomBox algorithm is very sure that Houston starter Zack Greinke is going to have a strong impact, with a 60% chance of putting together a quality start. Compare that to the 21% quality start likelihood for Detroit starter Casey Mize, and you can probably tell where this is going. Led by Greinke and Alex Bregman, Houston is projected to win this series opener 6.7-3.8. Our model gives the Houston Astros a 76.9% chance to win against the Detroit Tigers.
Top Spread Pick
Chicago Cubs @ Milwaukee Brewers: Chicago +1.5 (-170)
This NL Central clash should be one of the closest games of the day. We expect neither starting pitcher to perform particularly well, with Milwaukee’s Freddy Peralta having a 31% quality start chance to Chicago pitcher Adbert Alzolay’s 24% quality start likelihood. We project Milwaukee to win 5.2-5.1, but the TomBox algorithm gives the Cubs a 63.2% chance to cover.Top Over/Under Pick
Washington Nationals @ St. Louis Cardinals: Over 8.5 (-120)
Like with the Cubs-Brewers, we do not expect this NL series opener to have good starting pitching. The TomBox algorithm gives St. Louis’ John Gant a 27% chance to have a quality start compared to a 13% quality start chance from Washington’s Erick Fedde. With Juan Soto and Nolan Arenado expected to have the strongest performances, we’re projecting a 5.6-5.1 Cardinals win. That would certainly be comfortably over 8.5, with our model giving the over a 63.5% chance of hitting.
