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Smart Money NBA Playoff Picks For Saturday 7/3/2021

July 3, 2021by Mike O'Connor0
BasketballBest BetsFeaturedNBA

Smart Money NBA Playoff Picks For Saturday 7/3/2021

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Smart Money NBA Playoff Picks For Saturday 7/3/2021: Jrue Holiday vs. Bogdan Bogdanović - Milwaukee Bucks vs. Atlanta Hawks

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Mike’s Twitter: @MOConnor_NBA

For the life of me, I can’t understand why I’m once again trying to bet on this wildly unpredictable Bucks-Hawks series, but here I am. It is perhaps the last NBA game of the season before the NBA Finals, so let’s make the bets count. Here are my picks for tonight’s Game 6 between the Milwaukee Bucks and Atlanta Hawks.

Smart Money NBA Betting Picks for Tonight’s Action

Milwaukee Bucks @ Atlanta Hawks: Hawks -1.5 (-125)

There are two reasons I’m going with the Hawks tonight: First, Trae Young is listed as questionable, and I think he really might play. And second, this absolute trainwreck of a series is destined to go seven games no matter what. Additionally, I’m not all that confident in Jrue Holiday, Bobby Portis, and Brook Lopez being able to sustain their pace from Game 5. The Hawks benefitted from some hot shooting, as well, but nothing in the realm of Brook Lopez having 33 points. The other good news for the Hawks is that Bogdan Bogdanović is starting to look like his normal self again after looking like a ghost due to a knee injury in the latter stages of the Sixers series and the first four games of this series. His infusion back into the Hawks’ offense solves a lot of their problems. Take the Hawks to cover tonight.

Top Player Props for Tonight’s NBA Action

Milwaukee Bucks @ Atlanta Hawks: Kevin Huerter Over 12.5 Points (-125)

I fully expect Huerter to rebound from his 3-12 performance in Milwaukee on Thursday night. He’s due for an eruption in this series; he hasn’t scored more than 15 points in any of these five games so far. This bet is a wise decision regardless of whether Young plays or not. If Young is out, more of the offense will flow through Huerter. And if he plays, the Bucks will be more attuned to defending Young, and Huerter will get his open looks. Huerter has also proven capable of producing in big games, having scored 27 against the Sixers in Game 7. Take the over for him tonight. William Hill RF500 - 728x90

Milwaukee Bucks @ Atlanta Hawks: John Collins Over 1.5 Three-Pointers (+155)

The odds on this are great. And Collins found his shooting stroke in Game 5 after struggling for most of the series from beyond the arc. This bet is especially appetizing given the possibility that Young returns, given that Young will be able to set him up for pick and pops. Ordinarily, I don’t like betting on big men to make jump shots in big games, but the odds here are too good to pass up.

Milwaukee Bucks @ Atlanta Hawks: Khris Middleton Over 43.5 Points/Assists/Rebounds (-115)

As I alluded to a bit earlier, I’m expecting the Bucks’ role players to fall off a bit tonight. So Middleton will have to carry an even bigger load than usual. The old adage is that role players play better at home in big games, and I’m expecting that to hold true tonight. With an increased burden to shoulder, Middleton will take over most of the scoring, and will cross this threshold with ease. Bonus bet: BetMGM has Middleton to score over 30 points boosted to +140 odds. Take that, if you can.

Milwaukee Bucks @ Atlanta Hawks: P.J. Tucker Under 5.5 Points (-115)

Tucker has scored 6 or more points only once in this entire series. Given Giannis’ absence, I’m surprised this line isn’t even lower – Giannis at least has the ability to set him up for corner threes, which not many other players on the Bucks roster can do. Tucker is simply a non-factor on the offensive end, and I feel comfortable betting the under here.

Milwaukee Bucks @ Atlanta Hawks: Jrue Holiday Under 40.5 Points/Rebounds/Assists (-113)

Even with the Hawks’ atrocious defensive backcourt, this number is too high for Holiday. He has crossed it twice out of five games in this series. But it remains well beyond his regular-season combined Points/Rebounds/Assists average of 28. If he manages to pull out another masterful performance like in Game 5, hats off to him, but I’m betting on the law of averages to catch up to him a bit. Take the under on this one.

Mike’s Year to Date Record: 55-75

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