TomBox Sports Betting Algorithm NBA Picks For Thursday 4/22/2021
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Tonight, our player prop picks will come from the matchup between Phoenix and Boston, where the Suns take on the Celtics in a battle of two teams that have both won eight of their last 10 games.
Boston doesn’t allow many assists, 7th in the league at 23.8 per game. But with Marcus Smart guarding either Booker or Chris Paul, somebody’s gonna have to do more distributing. If Smart is on Booker, the TomBox algorithm expects him to get more involved in sharing rather than just scoring. Our model projects 5.6 assists for Booker tonight, well over the line to gain here.
With Jaylen Brown doubtful tonight with an injured left shoulder and Evan Fournier out due to health and safety protocols, some Celtics are gonna have to pick up their scoring output. Enter guys like Jayson Tatum, Kemba Walker, and Smart, the latter of whom is projected to score 16.7 points tonight. That would beat the over/under here by a bucket, a gamble worth taking even with Phoenix’s 5th-ranked defensive efficiency.
A San Antonio win tonight eliminates both Houston and Minnesota. And it doesn’t seem like Detroit is gonna prevent that from happening. The Spurs are projected to shoot 49.5% from the field to the Pistons’ 44%. San Antonio should also win the rebounding battle by seven and commit 3.6 fewer turnovers. Led by DeMar DeRozan’s 24.4 points, the TomBox algorithm expects the Spurs to win 111.5-99.5, giving them an 82% chance to win here.
Though the Bucks have a 57% chance of winning outright, this battle of two of the top three in the East is expected to be an even battle. Philly is expected to shoot 49.4% from the field to 49% for Milwaukee. Rebounds are pretty even, but the Bucks should win the turnover battle and hit 2.2 more three-pointers. With Giannis Antetokounmpo’s status for tonight in question a little, the TomBox algorithm projects a slight 116.8-115.2 win for the Bucks, well within the Sixers covering the 8 points.
These two teams on average combine for more than 220 points per game, but that’s not factoring in injuries on both sides to guys like Zach LaVine, LaMelo Ball, and Gordon Hayward. Yet the TomBox algorithm expects a combined 28.1 made three-pointers and strong nights from Terry Rozier for Charlotte and Nikola Vučević for Chicago. Our projection has the Bulls coming out on top 110-106, good enough to hit this abnormally small over.