TomBox Sports Betting Algorithm NBA Picks For Thursday 4/8/2021
April 08, 2021
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Now that the college basketball season is over and that whole fake Gonzaga fad nonsense has come and gone (just kidding, kinda), we can focus our attention back on the NBA.
With five weeks left in the 72-game regular season, we’re in the dog days of the campaign. Players and teams are getting tired and some weird results can happen because of it. So where do you go for the most educated and informed bets and picks? Of course, it’s our AI algorithm, TomBox, which has simulated all seven games on tonight’s NBA schedule thousands of times for the best picks you can find.
Our feature game tonight is the early game on TNT, which features a rematch of last summer’s Finals. The Lakers continue to struggle without LeBron James and Anthony Davis. They have fallen to 5th in the Western Conference as the Jazz, Suns, Clippers, and Nuggets surge. Miami has been at about .500 all season, but luckily for them, that’s currently good for 6th in the East. For our player props, we’ll focus on Kyle Kuzma for the Lakers and Bam Adebayo for the Heat.
Top Player Prop Picks
Los Angeles Lakers @ Miami Heat: Kyle Kuzma Over 15.5 Points (-115)
After scoring just eight points in Tuesday’s win in Tampa over the Raptors, the TomBox algorithm expects the bleach blonde Kuzma to play way better in his natural habitat of South Beach. In fact, we’re projecting him as the game’s leading scorer with 20.5 points on 51% from the field, putting him well over 14.5.Los Angeles Lakers @ Miami Heat: Bam Adebayo Under 18.5 Points (-120)
Even without LeBron and AD, the Lakers still have the top-ranked defense in the league. They still have players like Marc Gasol to bother star big men like Adebayo. He’s been averaging 19.3 points per game since the All-Star break, but the TomBox algorithm projects him to fall short of that tonight. We’re expecting a 14.1-point performance on just 8.9 attempts, a couple buckets fewer than the line to gain.Top Moneyline Pick
Detroit Pistons @ Sacramento Kings: Sacramento ML (-300)
After losing by 10 in Minnesota on Monday despite being heavily favored, Sacramento has had two nights off to come home and think about what it did before playing a Detroit team that’s 6-21 on the road this season. Thankfully for bettors, the TomBox algorithm expects the Kings to play way better tonight. We expect Sacramento to shoot 51.1% from the field to the Pistons’ 47.4 and commit 3.7 fewer turnovers. Behind De’Aaron Fox’s game-high 28.6 points, the Kings are expected to win 119.9-110.9 with a 70.6% chance to win the moneyline.
Top Spread Pick
Los Angeles Lakers @ Miami Heat: Los Angeles +8 (+112)
With an over/under on DraftKings at just 203.5, nobody’s expecting an All-Star game to break out here in terms of scoring. And that type of slow defensive struggle is what Miami is used to. Miami is 28th in the league in pace, whereas the Lakers are league average. We expect the Miami Heat to shoot 47.9% from the field to the Los Angeles Lakers’ 45.5. But the TomBox algorithm projects Los Angeles to out-rebound the Heat by two here. The Heat are still a 62.9% favorite to win this game outright, but the Lakers are gonna do just enough to keep it close. At 107-103, the TomBox algorithm gives the Lakers a 60.6% chance to cover the spread.Top Over/Under Pick
Chicago Bulls @ Toronto Raptors: Over 216.5 (-110)
Both these teams are average or better defensively but are in the top 12 in terms of pace. We’re expecting a quick game with not too many turnovers, 27 in total, and a combined 26.6 made three-pointers. Pascal Siakam is expected to lead all scorers with 28.5 points, but Chicago will come up with the 118.2-110.7 win, comfortably clearing 216.5. The TomBox sports betting algorithm had the over hit in 70.9% of its simulations.
