TomBox NBA Picks for Tonight’s Lakers-Bucks and Pelicans-Jazz Matchups
January 21, 2021
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TNT’s doubleheader Thursday night features one of the most highly anticipated matchups of the NBA season’s first half and a game we just saw two days ago. First, we have the Los Angeles Lakers and Milwaukee Bucks facing off. Then we have the New Orleans Pelicans at Utah Jazz matchup.
Los Angeles Lakers @ Milwaukee Bucks: Lakers -1
Point Total: Over 228.5
Game Results
The Los Angeles Lakers are one-point favorites in Milwaukee, where they take on the Milwaukee Bucks in a battle of the teams with the top-two regular-season records from a season ago. TomBox is projecting a tight one, a 112.9-110.1 win for the Lakers, where they emerge victorious in 54% of our simulations. There’s also a pretty big blowout potential in this game. The Lakers have a 30.8% big win potential, as opposed to 18.4% for the Bucks.Player Props
The TomBox algorithm is expecting really close numbers across the board, with nearly identical shooting percentages, rebounds. and turnovers. Giannis Antetokounmpo is projected to be the high scorer in the game with 28 points on 52% shooting with 11.1 rebounds, 6.6 assists, 1.5 steals, and 1.1 made 3s. But LeBron James is expected to outduel the Greek Freak with 27.9 points on 54% shooting to go with 10.4 dimes, 8.3 boards, and 2.6 made triples. We also project Anthony Davis to have 22.6 points and 9.9 rebounds. In addition, Dennis Schröder should be chipping in 11, and Montrezl Harrell should be scoring 10.2. For Milwaukee, Khris Middleton should have 19.4 points, 5.5 rebounds, and 4.8 assists. Jrue Holiday will put up 15.1 points and 5.8 assists with Brook Lopez scoring 10.7.
New Orleans Pelicans @ Utah Jazz: Pelicans +6.5
Point Total: Under 217
Game Results
After a 118-102 home win on Tuesday for the Utah Jazz over the New Orleans Pelicans, the two sides go at it again on Thursday from Salt Lake City. While TomBox expects a 107.8-103.8 win for the Jazz, we’re also projecting the Jazz covering the 6.5-point spread. We’re giving Utah a 66.1% chance to win on the moneyline, so that’s a relatively safe proposition there. It helps that our simulations have Utah averaging just 12.9 turnovers to New Orleans’ 15.2 and the Jazz nailing 11.9 threes to the Pelicans’ 8.9.Player Props
As for the individual numbers, we project Zion Williamson to be the game’s leading scorer with 23.9 points on 55% shooting with 7.1 rebounds. All-Star Brandon Ingram should have 19.9 points, 6 rebounds, and 4.7 assists. Eric Bledsoe should score 12.5 points, JJ Redick should hit 11.4, and Steven Adams should get 10.4. On the Utah side, Donovan Mitchell is expected to lead a balanced attack with 23.2 points on 46% shooting with 4.6 dimes, 4.3 boards and a game-high 2.4 made 3s. Mike Conley will have 16.3 points and 5.5 assists. Bojan Bogdanović will score 16. Jordan Clarkson will get 14.6 off the bench. And Rudy Gobert will have a 13.1-point, 11.3-rebound double-double. Utah has a 31.3% chance to get a win by a large margin, but we give a 58.1% chance of this game going under the 217.5 over/under line.
