Oh, how the mighty have fallen. I know how Julius Caesar must have felt in his dying seconds. Both of us betrayed by those who were supposed to propel us into greatness – Et tu, John Brown?
Okay, maybe I’m being a little dramatic but that was a shit week, to say the least. I knew I was in for a blood bath when my Bills 1H over 12.5
was ruined by a missed extra point. Please explain to me why these kickers can make countless 50 yarders but can't make the easy ones. As for John Brown, c'mon man. With Davis out, you should have been peppered with targets all game long. Instead, it was the Cole Beasley show. Really Cole? Last week you played like the dead lice were falling off you and then suddenly, you’re like sea biscuit all over the goddamn
place. If you aren’t familiar with that reference, there is no hope for you. After that putrid 0-3 week, my record stands at 12-10. But that could all change next week with the abundance of Super Bowl prop bets
Finally, the Super Bowl is here. I like to think of it as the sports bettor’s true Christmas. No wrapping presents and putting toys together all night. This day is ours. It’s time to crack open beers, dive into an assortment of dips, and last but not least, place WAY too many wagers. Here are the early Super Bowl prop bets I plan on having some action on.
With the total over/under set at 56, it's obvious the books expect this to be a shoot-out, and so do I. Both these teams are top 5 in total points scored this year. Kansas City sits in second with a robust 30.7 per game and Tampa in fifth, with a respectable 29.6. While both these teams have a better-than-average run game, the damage will be done through the air. When these two teams played each other in Week 12, Mahomes came just short of topping his own personal passing yards record. By halftime, he had a ridiculous 359 yards passing.
Next Sunday you will witness the passing of the torch. Mahomes is the future GOAT and will eventually be in the Hall of Fame. This Super Bowl is a major milestone on the way to that accomplishment. The Chiefs will defeat Brady and the Bucs, and it will be done via Patrick Mahomes’ arm.
I faded the hot running back last week, and it bit me in the ass. Maybe my wife is right, and I’m a stubborn fool but I don't care – I’m going to do it again. I can’t see Fournette having enough work to get him to 49 yards. He has looked good, but I’m not convinced. He’s more of a Band-Aid to a banged-up rushing attack, but that changes this week. Ronald Jones received 10 carries against the Packers last week and is clearly being eased back in the last few weeks – as he should be. He’s the more dynamic running back, and Arians knows this. This is the Super Bowl for crying out loud. Do you really think the coaching staff is going to lean on Leonard Fournette to beat Mahomes and the Chiefs? Forget about it.
Furthermore, Fournette has topped 48 yards on the ground only 7 times out of 20 games this year. The only way Fournette is effective in this game is going to be catching screen passes and check-downs from Brady as they try to keep pace with the Chiefs. It’s possible the Chiefs start pulling away as soon as halftime and the Bucs have to abandon the run game altogether.
While these prop bets may seem more vanilla compared to the other novelty bets you will find come Sunday, they are solid picks. I like to think of betting on the Super Bowl like freshman year in college. If you don't pace yourself, you’ll find yourself passed out and broke before 8 o’clock hits. Stay tuned to The Odds Factory, there’s going to be a ton of content next week and you don’t want to miss any of it.