Brady vs. Rodgers: Previewing the Packers-Bucs NFC Championship Game

January 20, 2021by Mike Barner0
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Brady vs. Rodgers: Previewing the Packers-Bucs NFC Championship Game

NFC Championship Game: Aaron Rodgers - Green Bay Packers vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
970x90 BetMGM Sportsbook - Article - Risk-Free Bet $600 We have an extremely exciting matchup on tap with the Green Bay Packers hosting the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in the NFC Championship game on Sunday. Let’s dive into some key matchups to watch and discuss who might be on their way to the Super Bowl. All odds referenced are from the BetMGM Sportsbook.

Green Bay Packers vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Packers -3.5 (-109)

Point Total: Over/Under 51 Points (-125/+104)

The Quarterbacks

Make no mistake about it, the quarterbacks are the story of this NFC Championship game. In one corner is Tom Brady, arguably the greatest quarterback in NFL history. The key note here is that this will be Brady’s first chance to reach the Super Bowl on a team other than the New England Patriots. In the other corner is Aaron Rodgers, who might be this season’s NFL MVP. With one Super Bowl title already under his belt, he’ll be looking for a chance to earn his second ring a decade after his first. He sure didn’t show any signs of age this season, exploding for 4,299 passing yards and 48 touchdowns. Rodgers might be able to keep his hot streak going through the air in this game given that the Bucs were tied for the 12th-most touchdown passes allowed in the league during the regular season. They did force 15 interceptions. But that’s usually not an area of concern for Rodgers. He hasn't thrown more than eight picks in a season since 2010. The TomBox algorithm expects Rodgers to take advantage of this matchup, projecting him to throw for 304 yards and two touchdowns. It also predicts his main beneficiary will be Davante Adams, who is projected to record 100 receiving yards and a touchdown. An area of concern for the Packers could be their ground game. The Bucs have been extremely stingy in that department. They've allowed the fewest rushing yards in the league during the regular season and only 10 rushing touchdowns. That could mean a rough showing is in the cards for Aaron Jones. He was held to 15 yards on 10 carries when these two teams met in Week 6. William Hill RF500 - 728x90

Their Week 6 Matchup

Speaking of that Week 6 matchup, Brady threw for 166 yards and two touchdowns in that contest. They didn’t exactly need him to do much, though, on their way to a 38-10 win. The TomBox algorithm is expecting big things from him Sunday, projecting him to throw for 319 yards and three touchdowns. The touchdown projection is significant given that the Packers were tied for the ninth-fewest touchdown passes allowed during the regular season. The Bucs rode the hot hand of Ronald Jones in Week 6, who rushed for 113 yards and two touchdowns on 23 carries. It’s difficult to envision a scenario in which Jones receives that many carries in this game, though, given that Leonard Fournette had 17 rushing attempts against the Saints last week compared to 13 for Jones. The TomBox algorithm has Fournette projected for nine carries and Jones projected for seven. However, both of these might be a tad on the low side.

TomBox Predictions

For the game itself, TomBox is predicting a close matchup, with the Bucs winning 49 percent of the simulations. With the Packers being favored by 3.5 points, it only has a prediction of 40 percent for them to cover the spread. So while TomBox projects taking the points to be a profitable wager, it could still be the Packers that we see in the Super Bowl. PointsBet - Deposit Bonus Up to $250

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