NFL Betting Strategies for the 2021 Season 

September 2, 2021by Action Jackson0
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NFL Betting Strategies for the 2021 Season 

NFL Betting Strategies for the 2021 Season: Marcus Maye, John Franklin-Myers, Bryce Hall, Neville Hewitt, & Tevin Coleman vs. Josh Reynolds - New York Jets vs. Los Angeles Rams
We did it, guys. We finally made it to Week 1 of what will no doubt be remembered as the New York Jets’ Super Bowl season.  I could not be more excited for the season to start. There’s a whole crop of new young quarterbacks, tons of offseason player movement, and most importantly, we finally will have fans in the stands (fingers crossed). It’s that time of year to block off your entire Sunday for watching RedZone and placing bets you simply cannot afford. Before you place anything, make sure you’re prepared with our top tips and strategies for betting NFL football this season. 

NFL Betting Strategies for the 2021 Season 

1. Fade The Public

If there’s one thing I’ve learned in my life, it’s that most people are incredibly stupid and dumb. Instead of letting it get you down, let’s exploit it this football season and bet against the rest of the American public. Here are some quick ways to make your money betting on the stupidity of the casual bettor. 

Bet Against Iconic Franchises 

The NFL, like most sports, has a handful of truly iconic franchises that casual football fans will follow. Teams like the Dallas Cowboys, Pittsburgh Steelers, and Green Bay Packers have a variety of fans that don’t closely follow the game and receive a disproportionate amount of media attention. This leads to a significant amount of money being placed on these teams by recreational bettors which will affect lines and wager amounts.  When in doubt, bet against these teams, who are generally over-hyped and over-valued.  Which leads to my next point… 

Look for Reverse Line Movement 

Reverse line movement refers to a game where the oddsmakers have moved a line in favor of a side with significantly less money on it. If the public is betting heavily on a wager like Cowboys -7, you’ll start to see the line move closer and closer to even (i.e. Cowboys -6, etc.). When you see this start to happen, this is meant to entice more people to bet on the Cowboys. You want to jump on the movement quickly while you still can to bet against them. Make sure you move quickly though, because, by the time you notice, the line may have shifted already. If this is the case, don’t panic. You should still be able to find the old odds at another book.

2. Hammer Divisional Dogs 

The idea that “Parity is King” has become a cliché in the NFL. On one level, there’s a lot of truth behind that idea. These are professional athletes, the cream of the crop. Most times, the difference between a 9 and a 6-win team can come down to a few lucky bounces or breaks.  The one area whether this isn’t completely accurate is divisional matchups. These teams play each other twice a year, every single year. Especially when you have coaches or core players with long tenures at the same team, opponents begin to pick up on tendencies and trends from otherwise unbeatable teams. As a result, you’ll see upsets at a much higher rate than usual.  For this reason, you want to look for divisional underdogs to bet on, especially at home. Look for massive spreads or strong odds on a moneyline bet and put your first child’s college tuition on it immediately. You’ll either win big or they’ll have to earn themselves a scholarship like a grown-up. Win-win. 

3. Don’t Over-React 

This is hands down the most important piece of advice you’ll get on any type of betting but is particularly relevant for the NFL. As the premier sports league in the country with only 256 games a year, every single matchup is broken down, over-analyzed and talked about to death over the course of the week. Depending on the week, a team is either a sure-fire Super Bowl champion or could lose to Alabama by 2 touchdowns, at least according to Skip Bayless.  It’s easy to buy into the hype. Don’t.  We touched on this earlier, but in the NFL, the gap between teams is minuscule. Anyone can win during any game. Blowouts can happen in a blink of an eye. Injuries can shape a season overnight.  When betting the NFL (or any other sport), make sure you don’t chase losses, change your strategies too much, or panic bet through your entire bankroll. When in doubt, check in here with your old friends at The Odds Factory for our expert picks every week. We won’t lead you astray, I swear (fingers crossed and knocking on wood). 

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