NFL Divisional Round Picks For 1/17/2021

January 17, 2021by Anthony George0
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NFL Divisional Round Picks For 1/17/2021

NFL Divisional Round Picks: Sean Murphy-Bunting vs. Alvin Kamara - Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ New Orleans Saints

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Well, they can't all be winners. We ended up going 1-2, and I am still pretty salty about it. It's too bad because I hammered those player props. I guess the book has to win sometimes. I don’t know why that Josh Allen prop was set so low - he smashed it before the first half. It seems to have been corrected this week, sitting at 40 yards for a total. Like I said in my last pick article, A.J. Brown is a bad dude. He is going to be an absolute monster in the NFL for years to come. I knew his final reception line was going to be close but did he really have to kill my pick by .5? Those are the worst losses. As for the McKissic pick – I still stand by it. Who could have guessed Heinicke would ball out with over 300 yards and two touchdowns? Let's put that first sub-.500 week behind us and get our swag back – I think the kids still say that. Here are my NFL Divisional Round Picks for Sunday.

Cleveland Browns @ Kansas City Chiefs – 3:05 PM EST

You smell that? I do, it is the first blowout of the week. Fitting that it will happen to the team named after the color of shit. Sure, they had an outstanding Wild-Card Weekend, but their run stops here. Check out the best picks for the NFL Divisional Round game between the Browns and Chiefs:

Kansas City -2.5 1st Quarter (-127)

I usually don’t play first-quarter spreads, but this week I will make an exception. Kansas City is going to come out on fire. The extra week of rest is great for “The Cheetah,” and I think he comes out beating Cleveland’s battered secondary. Given the history of Tyreek Hill's domestic violence troubles, I probably should have phrased that differently.

The Browns are still celebrating their win over that fraudulent Steelers team and I can see them having a couple of three-and-outs to start the game. I honestly don’t see Kansas City leaving any points on the field. Even if a couple of drives end in field goals, the Browns will not be able to match.

Kareem Hunt Over 15.5 Receiving Yards (-148)

You’re kidding me, right? Kareem Hunt needs to get two first downs’ worth of receiving yards? If you read my Divisional Round preview article, you might be aware of the revenge game narrative Hunt has this week. After last week's win, he went live on Instagram – saying that this game against the Chiefs is personal. Hunt is going to be playing with a purpose, and with the game script most likely being them playing from behind – they'll be using him a lot. I like this pick for another reason.

BONUS: Kareem Hunt Anytime TD Scorer (+145)

This is an extension of the last pick. Hunt is going to score one way or another. If you watch Browns’ games, doesn’t it always seem like Hunt is in on the red zone snaps?

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Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ New Orleans Saints – 6:40 PM EST

One of these GOATs will be bleating and beating the other by the end of the night and in my opinion - the winner will be Tom Terrific.

Tampa Bay Bucs ML (+120)

I could have taken the +3 on the spread, but I like the odds here. Anytime you get plus odds on a Brady-led team in the playoffs – take them. I know that the last time these two teams played, Tampa got absolutely blown out, losing 38-3. That’s a little scary, but it looks like they have gotten things figured out as a team. They are on a five-week winning streak, and I think it continues Sunday. As much as I love Drew Brees and the career he has had in the NFL, the Saints fall short here.

These two teams match up extremely well. Both defenses are top-ten, and their respective offensives are potent as hell. The Bucs seem to finally be healthy, and the same can be said for the Saints. The X factor for me is Tom Brady. His experience in the postseason is untouchable. The game is going to be a nail-biter till the end. Let’s just hope Tom Brady has an extra scoop of his avocado ice cream pregame.

Alvin Kamara Over 99.5 Total Yards (-148)

If the Saints win this game, it will be because they got Kamara involved early and often. He’s the best player on this team. Michael Thomas might be a top-five wide receiver, but Kamara can do it all. He’s the best receiving back the league has seen in the last 5 years, maybe even a decade. In a playoff game against Brady and the Bucs, the Saints are going to need every weapon they have on full auto. 100 yards may seem steep against this defense, but he has hit at least 100 all-purpose yards in 50% of the games he's played. In the last 5 games, he has finished with 94 or more total yards.

I can feel this week being a nice bounce-back spot for my picks. If they flop again, I will have to resort to reactivating my OnlyFans account to feed myself, and nobody wants that. For Saturday’s slate, don’t forget to check out Mike Barner’s Smart Money NFL Playoffs Divisional Round Picks.

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