Smart Money NFL Week 1 Picks For 9/12/2021
September 11, 2021
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I can’t explain how excited I am to be watching the NFL once again. Fans couldn’t have asked for a better Thursday Night game to get things rolling. I’m also pumped because I no longer have to rely on betting on the MLB to get my fix (at least on Sundays). Every week I will be giving out my favorite bets with one moneyline, spread, and over/under. If you followed my NHL picks articles, you might notice I don’t pick huge moneyline favorites to write about. Anyone can choose a -400 favorite and call it a day. Not me. I like to find value and make a few bucks. But with that being said, I don’t have the Grays Sports Almanac from Back to the Future Part II. So bet smart, and tail at your own risk. Better yet, follow our bankroll management tips.
NFL Week 1 is finally here. Log into your sportsbook and let’s have a fucking weekend.
Smart Money NFL Week 1 Picks For 9/12/2021
Miami Dolphins @ New England Patriots: Dolphins ML (+150)
It’s no secret that this Patriots team isn't the same without Brady. After one of the worse seasons in recent franchise history, the Cam Newton experiment ends after just one year. Because of this, Belicheck is going all-in on Big Mac Jones. I love fading rookie quarterbacks in their first start. With the pre-season shortened by a week, that’s less time for the rookie to create valuable chemistry with his receivers. Additionally, this Miami defense isn’t soft by any means. They finished last season strong and have a talented secondary. I’m banking on Mac Jones to make a few mistakes and this defense to come away with some turnovers. While I don’t think this Miami offense is going to be a powerhouse and light up the scoreboard, I think Tua does enough to keep it close and beat the Pats in a close game. Gaskin is going to get a ton of work in this game. So lock him in your fantasy lineups as well. Final Score: 17-10 Miami.San Francisco 49ers @ Detroit Lions: Under 45.5 (-105)
There’s nothing better than fading Jared Goff on a new team with below-par receivers. Actually, there might be. A team that uses a revolving door at the quarterback position is never a good thing. Rookie Trey Lance and Garoppolo are in a QB battle and Kyle Shanahan didn’t rule out using both of these guys on game day. While the Niners are by far the better team and have the talent to put up a decent amount of points, I don’t see this total cracking 46. Honestly, I don’t see Detroit scoring a touchdown at all. Their best player is Swift, and he’s all banged up. Take the under, but do yourself a favor and go watch another game. Nobody likes sweating out an under – especially not during Week 1. Final Score: 27-3 San Francisco.
Denver Broncos @ New York Giants: Broncos -3 (+100)
Why the Denver Broncos are only favored by just a field goal against the New York Giants is beyond me. Sure, the Broncos are my favorite team and I might be slightly biased here, but they looked excellent in the pre-season. On the other hand, the Giants looked like absolute trash. I know these games don’t count, but this Broncos defense is going to be all over Danny Dimes. Chubb and Miller are going to live in that backfield Sunday. Another reason why I love taking the Broncos here is because the Giants’ best weapon, Saquon Barkley, is questionable for the game. There’s a decent chance he plays below 100% or not at all. Without Barkley on the field...things could get ugly for Big Blue. The quarterback situation for the Broncos isn’t ideal with Teddy Bridgewater behind center. He’s got one of the worst touchdown percentages in the league and doesn’t push the ball down the field. He’s basically a game manager. But with the amount of talent on this offense, I don’t think it matters. I don’t see them having a problem moving the ball down the field against this defense and playing the time-of-possession game. I hate using this terminology, but this is going to be a sweat-free LOCK. Final Score: 28-13 BRONCOS. It seems like we've been waiting for this moment for eternity, and as much as I’d like to empty my bankroll during Week 1, I think we all need to take a deep breath and bet it smart. For more betting tips follow the Bet-Tenders on Instagram and Twitter or visit us at www.bet-tenders.com. It’s a long season fellow degenerates, see you next week – cheers.
