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Smart Money AFC Conference Championship Picks: Buffalo Bills vs. Kansas City Chiefs

January 23, 2021by Anthony George0
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Smart Money AFC Conference Championship Picks: Buffalo Bills vs. Kansas City Chiefs

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Smart Money AFC Conference Championship Picks: Mario Addison vs. Travis Kelce & Patrick Mahomes - Buffalo Bills @ Kansas City Chiefs

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Conference Championship Round Picks: Buffalo Bills @ Kansas City Chiefs

Now that’s more like it. Last week, my picks went 4-1. Not surprisingly, it’s expected here at The Odds Factory, we pump out winners. There wasn’t much of a sweat with any of the picks either, which is always nice. That Bucs moneyline was basically free money – how do you fade Brady in the playoffs? With Latavius Murray being ruled out pre-game, I was already counting my winnings on that Kamara over 99.5 yards play, before the first whistle even blew. The dud pick was Kareem Hunt. I was right about him finding pay dirt, but despite being behind most of the game, they didn’t use him nearly as much as they should have. Oh well, solid week regardless. As of now, my record is a respectable 12-7. The Conference Championship Round is up next, time to keep this momentum going.

Buffalo Bills @ Kansas City Chiefs – 6:40 PM EST

Kansas City fans can exhale as Mahomes has cleared the concussion protocol. He is officially good to go for this game. It would have been an interesting storyline to see Chad Henne lined up behind center, but luckily we get to see last year's Super Bowl MVP. Considering these two teams played each other in Week Six, they are not strangers to one another. In fact, you can forget what happened that week; it’s going to be an entirely different ballgame. Here are my favorite picks for this game.

Buffalo Bills First Half Over 12.5 Total Points (-136)

This line jumped out to me for a couple of reasons. This Bill’s offense is in the Top5 in scoring this year. Buffalo is out to make a statement this year. Every week, they slam on the gas and don't take their hooves off the pedal until the final whistle is blown. Against this Chiefs team, they are going to need to score points and a lot of them. Buffalo is ranked third in first-half points scored with an average of 15.5. They have had at least 13 first-half points in 12 of the 19 games they’ve played. If Buffalo can’t score at least two touchdowns in the first half, it is very unlikely they leave Arrowhead with an AFC title. William Hill RF500 - 728x90

John Brown Over 52.5 Receiving Yards (-112)

The Bills enter Sunday’s game with a couple of starting wideouts under the questionable tag. Cole Beasley was noted to have a limited practice on Thursday, and Gabriel Davis is listed as a true game-time decision while nursing an ankle injury. Although I think Beasley ends up being upgraded to a full participant Friday, the same can't be said about Davis. If Davis misses this game, it should result in John Brown receiving more looks from Josh Allen. In a game where this is probably going to be a shootout, John Brown could blow up here. Looking at John Brown’s last five games – he has reached 52 yards in four of them. John Brown may not be a number one receiving threat but he has the speed to burn any defender. With a 40 yard dash time of 4.32 seconds, he will be one of the fastest players on the field Sunday. The combination of his speed, game script, and the extra looks he should be getting with Davis out sets him up for a big day.

Darrel Williams Under 9.5 Rushing Attempts (+110)

Watching how well Darrel Williams ran last week, you might think I’m crazy taking the under on anything associated with him. Well, l might be a little nuts, but not with this pick. Darrel Williams looked good against the Browns, but he won't get the same opportunity Sunday. Clyde Edwards-Helaire has been battling a high ankle sprain, but reports are saying he will be active on game day. The truth is Darrel Williams is the backup running back. So far this season, he has only reached 10 carries just twice. What I like even more is that despite being the bell cow last week, he only had 13 rushing attempts. If CEH suits up and plays, Williams will be hard-pressed to find any playing time at all. CEH absolutely went off against this Bills defense the last time they played. I don't see Andy Reid resting him if he's ready to roll. Though, I am a little worried that he will tweak his ankle again. Re-injury is common in high ankle sprains, and this pick could bite me in the ass if he ends up exiting early. We’ve got a great weekend of Conference Championship Round football ahead of us. Lock these picks in, and I’ll see you at the cashier's window. For more picks and advice, follow me on Twitter @AJGIII07 and check out our other great content at The Odds Factory. PointsBet - Deposit Bonus Up to $250

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