Smart Money Super Bowl LV Player Prop Picks
Last week, I discussed three Super Bowl LV player prop bets to avoid. Now, it’s time to focus on three Super Bowl player prop picks that could make us some money. All odds were obtained from the BetMGM SportsBook.
Hill has been busy in the playoffs. In the Divisional Round against the Browns, he caught eight of 10 targets for 110 yards. As if that wasn’t impressive enough, he caught nine of 11 targets for 172 yards in the AFC Championship game versus the Bills. Including the regular season, he received at least 10 targets in a game nine times. He averaged 114.6 receiving yards in those contests.
One of those games with at least 10 targets came against the Bucs in Week 12. He absolutely destroyed their secondary, finishing with 13 catches, 269 yards, and three touchdowns. This has the potential to be a high-scoring affair between two explosive offenses, so with the likelihood that Hill receives a lot of passes thrown his way, I like him to hit the over.
Like Hill, Kelce has also been dominant in the playoffs. He posted at least 109 receiving yards in both games, catching three total touchdown passes along the way. Also, like Hill, Kelce has been extremely busy, receiving 25 targets across those two contests. That should come as no surprise given that he saw at least 10 targets in nine of the 15 games that he played in during the regular season.
Kelce played well when these two teams previously met, catching all eight of his targets for 82 yards. The Bucs had problems slowing down opposing tight ends for much of the regular season, allowing the fifth-most receiving yards to the position in the league. Don’t be surprised if Kelce blows past 100 yards in their rematch.
So, if I like the overs for Hill and Kelce receiving yards, I’m clearly thinking that a big performance is in store for the Chiefs’ offense. That means if the Bucs are going to have any chance of keeping up, they will probably have to throw a lot themselves. Enter Brady, who has arguably the best set of receiving weapons in his career.
When these two teams met previously, Brady threw for 345 yards on 41 pass attempts. He also had three touchdown passes, although he was picked off twice. There is a very good chance that he attempts at least 40 passes in this game, which was an important threshold for him this season. Across the nine games that he attempted at least that many passes, which includes one playoff game, he averaged 333.4 passing yards. Give me the over.