Super Bowl 54 Betting Guide

January 2, 2020by Lobo Grande5
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Super Bowl 54 Betting Guide

Super Bowl 54 Betting Guide - Lombardi Trophy

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Ed. Note: ATTENTION SPORTS FANS! Want to get in on the Super Bowl action? All new users on DraftKings will have their first bet matched with a risk-free bet up to $200. Click here to claim.

After a long and grueling NFL season, our wallets have survived and are ready for the playoffs. If you were lucky enough to put in a Super Bowl futures bet on one of the teams still standing, congrats! We all envy you. Hopefully, you got some nice odds and are in a position to make some decent money.

As for the rest of us, the NFL playoffs offer up a clean slate and a chance to right the wrongs that plagued us throughout this season. One of the best ways to cash out during the playoffs is by betting on the Super Bowl winner once the bracket is set.

Had your eye on a hot team down the stretch? Like a team’s path to the Super Bowl? It just takes four, and in some cases three wins to get the job done and we’ve seen value emerge from this bet so many times in the past.

Now is the time to roll the dice on them and see if they have what it takes to raise the trophy in Miami. Here’s a breakdown of the odds to win it all and some value spots that I see.

The Favorites

Baltimore Ravens (+220)

The Ravens have become the darlings of the NFL with future MVP Lamar Jackson leading the way. Week after week, we waited for a team to figure out how to stop their unique, high-powered offense and we’re still left waiting as we head into the playoffs.

While I think the Ravens are incredibly strong and well-deserving of being the favorites here, I just don’t see much value in this bet. Winning three straight against strong playoff teams is difficult to do no matter how good you are, and the +220 line just doesn’t seem worth it. Lamar Jackson has been incredible this season, but it’s a high price to pay for a QB with minimal playoff experience and for a team whose success hinges so much upon one player. I’ll pass on this bet.

San Francisco 49ers (+400)

The 49ers finished their season in dramatic fashion, pulling out a last-second win against Seattle on the road to clinch the #1 seed and home-field advantage throughout the playoffs. They will likely be a trendy Super Bowl pick since all teams will have to travel through San Francisco to get by them.

I’m not a huge fan of the Niners here at this price. They have had an amazing season and have played every single game tough, including a thrilling road win over the Saints and almost beating Baltimore on the road. However, the inexperience of Jimmy Garoppolo gives me concern and their defense has looked shaky in the last few weeks of the season, giving up an average of 31.7 points per game over their last four. If their defense can figure it out this team can be incredibly dangerous, but at 4/1 I’m not willing to take the chance.

Kansas City Tunder (+450)

When Patrick Mahomes went down on Thursday Night Football in Week 7, a lot of people started to count the Chiefs out and they have become somewhat underrated. A knee injury to your star quarterback is obviously reason for concern, but Mahomes only ended up missing a few weeks and is now back in full force.

The Chiefs are rolling coming into the playoffs, winning their last six games in a mostly-convincing fashion. When thinking of the Chiefs, it’s easy to immediately turn your attention to their explosive offense. While the offense is clicking, it’s their defense that has really stepped up as of late. They let up an average of 11.5 points per game over their last six games to close out the season.

As the #2 seed in the AFC, they will play their first game at home and will only be forced to go on the road if they need to play Baltimore, who I think they can go toe-to-toe with. The Chiefs were one penalty call away from making the Super Bowl last year, and at +450, I think the Chiefs are a solid bet to win it all this time around.

New Orleans Saints (+600)

The Saints did not get a first-round bye but have the fourth-best odds to win the Super Bowl this year. They will host a Wild Card Weekend game against a banged-up Minnesota Vikings team in what has become an odd but entertaining playoff rivalry.

While the game against Minnesota should be a win (they're currently 7.5-point favorites), nothing in the NFL is a lock. I think the extra game needs to be factored into whether to take them here. We all know that the Saints have the seasoned QB and the weapons to hang with just about any team in the league, but they are middle of the pack defensively. They are one of the top teams in the league at stopping the run but gave up the 13th most passing yards per game this season. A round 2 matchup with Aaron Rodgers at Lambeau Field scares me, so I’ll stay away from New Orleans here.

Middle of the Pack

Green Bay Packers (+1000)

It’s easy to sleep on this Green Bay team. They ranked in the bottom half of the league in most defensive categories, and their offense has been pretty much as average as average can be across the board. Yet, they found themselves with a record of 13-3 and with the #2 seed in the NFC.

I don’t typically love to bet on a team because of their road to the Super Bowl. I’m going to make an exception with the Packers.

They get a home game in round two, and however Wild Card Weekend shakes out I think they will be favored regardless of who they play. In the NFC Championship Game, they’d be looking at either another home game or a road game in San Francisco. The Packers got absolutely shellacked when they played in San Francisco earlier this season, so the revenge game script is there and while it may be hard to do after how that regular-season matchup ended, I’m more comfortable with Aaron Rodgers than Jimmy G in a playoff game. If they can make it to Miami, Rodgers gives you a shot to beat anyone. At 10/1, I’d throw a little bit on the Pack.

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New England Patriots (+1200)

I will keep this one pretty short. You have a chance to bet on Bill Belichick and Tom Brady at 12/1 heading into the playoffs. I know the Patriots haven’t looked like the Patriots of old, but experience and coaching have so much to do with playoff success and it’s just hard for me to pass on this kind of value. They also have the #1 ranked defense in the league.

Fast forward to February 2nd. Brady and Belichick are fresh off their 257th Super Bowl Media Day and you’re kicking yourself wondering why you passed on this opportunity. It is super likely? No. Would it surprise me? Absolutely not.

The Dart-Throws

Seattle Seahawks (+2500)

The Seahawks' odds and Super Bowl hopes changed drastically after losing that nail-biter to the 49ers on Sunday Night Football. They now find themselves traveling to Philadelphia to take on the Eagles in round one, heading into that game on a two-game losing streak.

Although they dropped to the #5 seed, it may actually work in Seattle’s favor. Typically known as a team that is much better at home, Seattle was uncharacteristically 7-1 on the road this year. I think they have a good shot to take down the Eagles team that snuck into the playoffs and would then likely faceoff with the Niners. We’ve all seen what happens in those games. At 25/1, they are a long shot that I’d take a small risk on.

Philadelphia Eagles (+2500–+4000)

The odds on the Eagles vary drastically based on which book you are using. They can be found as low as +2500 and as high as +4000. It doesn’t matter. Regardless of the odds, I wouldn’t recommend putting any money on the Eagles.

For what it’s worth, I wouldn’t have recommended putting money on whichever team made it out of the joke that was the NFC East. The Eagles are banged up and have a very difficult road ahead of them. I just don’t think they have the weapons to get it done.

Houston Texans (+3300)

Houston managed to win their division and have been a very entertaining team to watch and to bet on this season. Sadly, I think the fun stops here.

The Texans rank by far the lowest of any playoff team in DVOA according to Football Outsiders. They let up points left and right. And I wouldn’t be surprised if the Bills went into Houston and stole that game from them. Even if they survive Wild Card Weekend, I don’t see their defense being able to stop these potent offenses in the AFC. Spend your money elsewhere.

Minnesota Twins (+3300)

The Vikings are limping into the playoffs and I don’t see much hope for them as a Super Bowl contender. Here’s a fun fact – of their ten wins this season, only one came against a team with a record above .500. And that was against the 9-7 Eagles. I’ll pass on Minnesota.

Tennessee Titans (+5500)

The Titans are the true definition of a Wild Card in my opinion. Ever since Ryan Tannehill took over as the starting quarterback, their offense has been nothing short of explosive. He finished the season with the best passer rating in the league. They have two serious offensive weapons in Derrick Henry and A.J. Brown.

Despite all of that, it's still Ryan Tannehill going into New England to play the Patriots in a playoff game. I’m all over the Pats here, but at 55/1, I’d hedge a little bit and sprinkle a little capital on the Titans just in case they are for real.

Buffalo Bills (+6000)

As previously mentioned, I could definitely see Buffalo going into Houston and taking that game. They have been a tough out all season long, playing hard-fought games against Baltimore and New England and proving they can hang with the big boys.

Their defense is for real. They let up the second-fewest points this season to opponents. They have a young, electric quarterback who has shown a lot of poise this season and could be ready to take the next step. While I don’t think the Bills can necessarily go the distance, I think they could win a game or two and provide some good hedging opportunity.

Ed. Note: ATTENTION SPORTS FANS! Want to get in on the Super Bowl action? All new users on DraftKings will have their first bet matched with a risk-free bet up to $200. Click here to claim.

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