Easy Money Thursday Night Football Picks For 9/9/2021
September 09, 2021
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We’re here, ladies and gentlemen. It’s time for some fucking football. I’ll be making picks every Thursday night to help you get your weekend started on the winning side of life, and head into Sunday with a nice little balance in your bankroll to play with. As always, all picks are completely correct and if they lose, it’s because the NFL is fixed.
The season kicks off with a marquee matchup between the defending Super Bowl champs from Tampa Bay and America’s Team and winner of my unofficial worst season of Hard Knocks ever, the Dallas Cowboys. Right now, Tampa is favored by 8 points and the over/under is set at 51.5. Before I get into my picks and my favorite props and promos for tonight, let’s break this bad boy down a bit.
Like any Week 1 matchup, there’s a lot of unknowns. But one side certainly has more question marks than the other…and that’s the Dallas Cowboys.
Dallas Cowboys @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Tampa Bay -8 (-115); Under 51.5 (-110)
Dallas Cowboys Question Marks
The biggest storyline coming into tonight’s game is the health of Dak Prescott. After missing the last 12 games of the year with an ankle injury, he seemed primed for a big bounceback year and ready to live up to the monster 4-year, $160-million contract he signed during the offseason. However, just one week into the preseason, he was diagnosed with a shoulder injury and has yet to see the field. The medical staff has diagnosed him as a full go for tonight. But he’ll still be facing the defending Super Bowl champs with exactly zero in-game reps since last October. Even if he’s at 100% strength, it’s hard to discount the rustiness he might show, especially at the start of the game. To make matters worse, his top offensive lineman, Zack Martin, will likely miss the opener with COVID. The Cowboys have some of the best weapons in the league, with Ezekiel Elliott in the backfield and stud receiver Amari Cooper, CeeDee Lamb (primed for a breakout sophomore year), and a wildly underrated Michael Gallup on the outside. But if Dak’s under pressure all night or if there aren’t holes for Elliot to run through, none of that matters. Last, but certainly not least, comes the question of the defense. Last year’s defense was an absolute abomination. Their rushing defense was ranked 31st out of 32 and overall, the team gave up the most yards to opponents in franchise history. The Cowboys made significant moves to address their weak spot in the offseason, bringing in Dan Quinn as a coordinator, overhauling their coaching staff at key positions, signing 5 free agents, and drafting 6 rookies on the defensive side. While these are all good moves, it’s far too early to tell whether they’ll pay off.Can The Buccaneers Defend Their Title?
On the exact opposite side of the spectrum are the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, who return all 22 starters from their Super Bowl run. On top of that, they’ve added key pieces in the offseason, like free-agent back Giovani Bernard, who adds a different dimension to an already-explosive offensive, and rookie first-round edge-rusher Joe Tryon-Shoyinka. Unlike the Cowboys, we know exactly what we’re getting with Tampa. The challenge for the team this year will be staying healthy and staying motivated. The 44-year-old green smoothie addict Tom Brady continues to defy Father Time through weird stretches, the least appealing diet of all time, and a deal he made with the devil at some point in the early 2000s. Anyone who bets against Brady eventually becomes a very poor man. But at some point in his career, he’ll lose a step. Could this be the year? One thing you can count on is that the defense will be dominant, especially on the defensive line. Last year’s team was #1 in the league in run defense and terrorized opponents in the passing game. Anyone who watched Mahomes run for his life in the Super Bowl knows just how imposing this team can be. If you thought the Cowboys had skill-position talent, wait until you see the Bucs. Tampa has arguably the best receiving trio in the league, led by Mike Evans, who had a career-high 13 TDs last year to go with his 7th straight 1,000-yard season, sure-handed Chris Godwin (77% catch rate last year), and the rejuvenated Antonio Brown. That’s not to mention tight end Rob Gronkowski, and a loaded backfield of Leonard Fournette, Ronald Jones, and the newly-acquired Giovani Bernard. It’s nearly impossible to find a weak spot on this entire team, which is why I’m leaning on them hard tonight.The Pick: Tampa -8 (-115); Under 51.5 (-110)
I’m sticking with continuity for this game and my complete and total lack of faith in Dallas. I can’t see the Dallas Cowboys' defense slowing Tampa Bay down. And I certainly can’t see their offense moving the ball against the vaunted Buccaneer front 7, especially with Zack Martin down. Expect a blowout from Tampa and the under hitting thanks to Dallas’ offensive woes.
Prop I Like: Ezekiel Elliott Has 5+ Receptions, 10+ Carries (+275)
Even with Dak at full strength, this offense has run through Ezekiel Elliott throughout his entire career. Don’t expect that to change this season, even with playmakers like Amari Cooper and CeeDee Lamb on the outside. This prop has the added benefit of being a hedge towards Dak going down early. If noodle arm DiNucci has to play, expect Elliott to be even more involved in the offense on the ground and through short passes. While 5+ receptions is a little high, +275 is too good of odds to pass up. Hammer this bad boy and thank me later.Tonight’s Best Promo: BetMGM Thursday Night Halftime Payout
Details: Place a ML bet on either TNF game. If they’re up by 10 or more at the half, your bet counts as a win, regardless of the outcome.
My favorite thing about betting is when it’s over. There’s nothing worse than having a bet look like a lock in the first half, only to watch it slowly but surely fade from possibility as the other team goes on a big run. This promo eliminates the stress of a late-game comeback by guaranteeing your victory in the first half and locking in your happiness for the rest of the night. Happy betting tonight and make sure you tune in and follow along this football season for more can’t-miss picks.
