TomBox Algorithm NFC and AFC Title Game Picks
Sunday’s first game is chock full of firsts. It’s the first postseason matchup between Tom Brady and Aaron Rodgers, the first time the Green Bay Packers are hosting a conference championship game during Rodgers’ tenure at QB, and the first time you get to have the TomBox algorithm make you money off this momentous game.
Green Bay Packers vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Buccaneers +3.5
Point Total: Over 52
The TomBox algorithm is predicting a close one in the battle of the Bays, with Green Bay winning the conference championship game in 50.6% of our AI simulations and Tampa Bay coming out on top in 49.4%. Either way, we’re giving the Buccaneers a 60% chance of covering the current 3.5-point spread on the road.
As with every close football game, turnovers will be crucial in determining which team advanced to Super Bowl LV. Green Bay commits fewer miscues in 60% of our simulations and wins 67% of those scenarios. Among the 40% of the time when Tampa Bay wins turnovers, it comes out on top 72% of the time.
Onto the battle of the GOAT QBs. Our projections have Brady throwing for 319.2 yards with 2.7 TDs and 0.8 interceptions. If Tom (once again, no relation to the Box) can throw for better than average passing yards and a 2:1 or better TD:INT ratio (a 41% chance), the Bucs win in 53% of those scenarios. Leading Tampa’s balanced receiving core is Chris Godwin, who will catch an estimated 4.3 balls for 59.4 yards and 0.5 TDs.
For the Packers, Rodgers is averaging 303.8 yards passing with 2.4 TDs and 0.7 interceptions in our simulations. In the same better-than-average passing yards and good TD:INT ratio (a 42% chance), Green Bay wins 56% of those scenarios. We’re also projecting Aaron Jones to rush for 70.3 yards and 0.8 TDs and Davante Adams to make 7.4 receptions for 100 yards and 0.9 TDs.
Kansas City Chiefs vs. Buffalo Bills: Chiefs -3.5
Point Total: Under 54
Before you ask, the answer is yes. The TomBox algorithm is expecting Patrick Mahomes to start and play for the defending champion Kansas City Chiefs on Sunday against the Buffalo Bills in the AFC Championship game.
And yes, the TomBox algorithm is giving Kansas City a 66% chance to win this conference championship game and go after a 2nd straight Super Bowl. In fact, we think there’s a 42% chance that the Chiefs win big. But our advanced AI technology does not think Mahomes is going to be the biggest reason why they win this game.
That would be running back Clyde Edwards-Helaire. We’re projecting the rookie to rush for 115 yards and 1.4 TDs, giving him a 74% chance of having at least one score on the ground. We’re expecting Mahomes to throw for 261.6 yards with 1.9 TDs and 0.7 interceptions. We also expect Travis Kelce to lead the team in receiving with 5.5 catches for 62.8 yards and 0.4 TDs.
QB Josh Allen is obviously going to be vital to Buffalo’s success. He averages 2.41 TDs to 0.41 picks when the Bills win and 1.9 TDs to 0.7 INTs in losses. We’re expecting him to throw for 270.9 yards with 2.1 TDs and 0.6 picks.
Lead Bills runner Devin Singletary averages 57 rush yards in wins per our simulations and 35 yards in losses. We think he’ll settle for 42.7 yards and 0.3 TDs. Buffalo will be led in receiving by Stefon Diggs’ 8.3 catches for 99.5 yards and 0.7 TDs.
As for turnovers, the Chiefs are expected to make more mistakes 55% of the time but win in 85% of the scenarios when they manage to have a positive turnover margin.