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Breaking Down the Tom Box Pick For Buccaneers vs. Saints

January 17, 2021by Shlomo Sprung0
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Breaking Down the Tom Box Pick For Buccaneers vs. Saints

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NFL Divisional Round Playoffs: Sean Murphy-Bunting vs. Michael Thomas - Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. New Orleans Saints

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In the battle of 700-year-old GOAT quarterbacks, only one can reign supreme and advance to the NFC Championship game. We’ve got you covered for the matchup between the New Orleans Saints and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.

Game Results

Our TomBox projection expects Sunday’s matchup between Tom Brady’s Tampa Bay Buccaneers and Drew Brees’ New Orleans Saints to be as close as close can really get. Our simulations have the Bucs winning by an average of 28.1-27.6. Tampa is winning 50.9% of sims and New Orleans is taking 49.1%. This means we project the road team to cover the spread.

Our model indicates that the turnover battle is especially key when it comes to swaying the outcome. Bruce Arians’ Bucs commit fewer miscues in 58% of our simulations. They win 67% of the time the turnovers are in their favor. The Saints win 71% of the time when they make fewer mistakes.

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Player Props

We expect Brady to throw for 292.8 yards with 2.8 TDs and 0.8 interceptions. In sims where Tom (no relation to our box) has at least a 2:1 TD-to-INT ratio (we estimate a 42% chance of this happening), Tampa wins 60% of the time. TomBox also projects that Chris Godwin will be the Bucs’ leading receiver, hauling in six catches for 71.4 yards and 0.6 TDs.

As for Brees, our projections have him throwing for 289.9 yards and 1.5 TDs to 0.9 interceptions. We’re only giving him a 30% chance to have that 2:1 TD:INT ratio. But the Saints win 60% of the time when he reaches that mark in our simulations. We’re also projecting Alvin Kamara to rush for 69.4 yards and 0.8 TDs and catch seven passes for 62.1 yards and 0.5 TDs. New Orleans is expected to be led in receiving by Michael Thomas, with 9.4 catches for 108.6 yards and 0.3 scores.

Finally, we’re projecting that the game goes over 52 points 56% of the time, with the under happening in 41.7% of our sims.

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