After a surprisingly convincing win over the rival Pittsburgh Steelers last weekend, getting off to an insane 28-0 lead, the Cleveland Browns now have to visit the defending Super Bowl champions, the Kansas City Chiefs, in the first game on Sunday. Not to burst anyone’s bubble in Ohio right now, but TomBox projects a convincing Kansas City win.

The Chiefs win in 78% of our simulations and win big in over 55% of them, with a 35.8-24.1 projected score against the Browns.

Player Props to Watch For

Patrick Mahomes is projected to have 295.7 yards passing with 2.5 TDs and just 0.5 interceptions. Clyde Edwards-Helaire is expected to go off, with 119.5 yards rushing and 1.5 TDs. We give him a 77% chance of scoring at least once in this matchup. Travis Kelce is expected to have 5.5 catches for 68.4 yards and 0.5 TDs. While Tyreek Hill should have 4.3 receptions for 57.9 yards and 0.6 scores.

We project Browns QB Baker Mayfield to throw for 248.3 yards with 2.0 TDs and 0.7 picks. In the 21% of our simulations where Cleveland pulled the upset, Mayfield averaged 2.49 TDs to just 0.39 picks, so his margin for error is quite low. Nick Chubb averages 84 yards rushing in Browns wins in our model and 54 in losses. The average projection expects him to go for 60.7 yards and 0.5 TDs. In the air, Jarvis Landry is estimated to have 6.7 catches for 88.6 yards and 0.6 TDs.

Our model expects the Cleveland Browns to win the turnover battle. But in the 44% of simulations in which the Chiefs force more turnovers than they commit, they win 93% of the time. As for the over/under of 57, the over hits 57.3% of the time, compared to 44.2% for the under.