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Premier League Soccer Futures

September 21, 2020by Miles Palma0
Best BetsFeaturedFuture BetsPremier LeagueSoccerUEFA

Premier League Soccer Futures

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Premier League Soccer Futures Bets: Harry Kane - Tottenham Hotspur (Spurs)

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With the Premier League’s weekend of action ending today until next weekend, we thought we’d take this opportunity to do something a little bit different. In the interest of not betting yourself into boredom this week by watching only the EFL Cup and MLS Soccer, instead of doing our daily locks, I’ll be giving you Premier League Futures bets.

Now, given the sheer length of a Premier League season, the wait time to see a return on your bet is several months. With that being said, that is the nature of futures bets, and the Premier League is long and compact enough, fortunately, to offer a plethora of smart money opportunities.

Here are my top 3 Premier League Futures bets:

Harry Kane to Win the Golden Boot (+700)

I think people have started to forget about Harry Kane a little bit. A difficult two years with injuries has meant that Harry has not truly been competitive for the Golden Boot. That being said, his numbers in those two seasons were still outrageous. Having played 7-9 games less than Mo Salah, Jamie Vardy, and Pierre-Emerick Aubamyang, Kane still managed to finish with 18 goals, 5 shy of Vardy’s total. And in the seasons before he was injured, Kane managed 21, 25, 29, and 30 goals.

The central question around Kane is whether he can stay fit. There’s no real way to predict that, but I’m choosing to lean on the side of optimism here. A fit Harry Kane gives you at least 25 goals. That’s almost indisputable. The last 4 Golden Boots have only been won by a maximum of 23 goals.

At +700, it’s clear that people have already written him off. But, I think that’s more to do with the fact that he hasn’t won the Golden Boot in several years rather than any actual research on what kind of numbers he puts up. It also means that he’s a great value bet compared to any of the other serious contenders such as Salah at +350 or Aubameyang at +450.

We saw yesterday just how crucial Kane is to Spurs. Assisting 4 and scoring 1 for himself, a healthy Kane is going to be bad news for the rest of the league. For me, a totally healthy Kane (which is a big if) means an automatic Golden Boot. I’m going to bank on his injuries being behind him and back him to win a record 3rd Golden Boot.

Burnley to Be Relegated (+250)

Burnley's Style of Play

I do worry about Burnley. Not because they lack quality or because they are poorly coached. Credit to them, they’ve survived in the Premier League longer than I expected. And they’ve actually done well, let alone survive. A perennial mid-table club, Burnley worry me because of how negatively they play. In a soccer world that is transitioning more and more toward attacking play, teams like Burnley do serve as outliers. They don’t pass the ball much, they don’t press much, yet they seemingly find a way of eking out results.

From what we’ve seen of the Premier League thus far, even the new clubs are playing expansive soccer. Usually, you'll see the newly promoted clubs come in and set up defensively with the one goal. Then they scrape by with enough points to narrowly stay up. But Leeds, for example, have come up straight away and gone for it. Both their games, one against the defending champions, Liverpool, and one against fellow newcomers Fulham, ended 4-3. Who’s to say how sustainable such an approach is? But the point remains that it's a sign of the times changing.

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Burnley's Record

Burnley began their season with a 4-2 loss away to Leicester. There’s no shame in losing to last season’s 5th-place finishers, but I do feel that this finally may be the season that Burnley might really struggle. Their conservative approach has proven successful in terms of staying up. But the problem with their style has always been that their ceiling was never very high. And what happens to teams with not a whole lot of ambition and a repetitive style is that they start to get figured out.

At +250, they are still very decent value for your money. Put it this way, it will become worse before it ever becomes better for Burnley, given this style and model. If they want to ever take the next step and climb into the top table, they’ll have to restructure their team, and doing that will mean taking some hits. They may very well have another one of their 12th-place finishes. But one of these seasons they’re going to have a nightmare, and they are just about due one this year.

Everton to Finish in the Top 6 (+200)

Premier League Top 6

I said it in my last article, but Everton really seem to be building something quite special over at Goodison. Two wins from two, Ancelotti’s men are playing with discipline and with flair. They’ve invested heavily in a new midfield, and what a midfield they look to be. Allan, Doucouré, and Rodríguez have been the headline-grabbers so far, and who knows how far they can go.

They’ve also got a fairly deep squad with players like Iwobi, Walcott, Kean, and Sigurðsson, with Bernard off the bench. In order to get into the Top 6, they’ll have to contend with Chelsea, Manchester United, Arsenal, Tottenham, Leicester, Wolves, and Sheffield United for the remaining four places after the assumed Top 2 of Liverpool and Manchester City.

Everton's Personnel

In all honesty, despite how good Arteta has been at Arsenal, I actually think Everton might be a better side than them personnel-wise. And they haven’t exactly got a bad coach in two-time Champions League winner Carlo Ancelotti either. As for the other teams, I feel as though they are around the level of Spurs, Wolves, and Leicester. But the experience and quality they’ve brought on, particularly James Rodríguez, makes me feel as though they’ll just have that bit more to make it into the Top 6.

It’s going to be rather tight again among the teams 3-8. We might see a finish similar to last season, where the difference between a Champions League spot and no European football was 3-4 points. So, Everton will by no means finish in the Top 6 comfortably. But what I do think is that this team is going to win some big games. They have already done so against Spurs. And those games, when it's all said and done, are going to be the difference between the finishing inside the Top 6 or outside.

It’s a bit on the riskier side to place this bet. But every season always has a team that shocks everyone. And I think Everton are going to be that club this year.

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