It’s fight night and you know what that means – it’s time to watch men in spandex beat the living shit out of each other while you try to make rent money with some well-placed drunk bets. This Saturday at UFC 264 is not just any other fight. It has become one of the most highly anticipated events this year, headlined by the culmination of the Conor McGregor vs. Dustin Poirier trilogy. Will we see a trilogy ending as powerful as D3: The Mighty Ducks or will we be forced to grapple with a colossal disappointment like 2010’s Step Up 3D? Only time will tell, but one thing is for sure – your pal Action Jackson, the Wizard of Odds and Prince of Parlays, is here with everything you need to know to make money on UFC 264. Today we’re breaking down McGregor-Poirier, smart money undercard picks, and our favorite promos to make your money go farther. Before we get into it, make sure you’re signed up for BetMGM, where we’re offering an Odds Factory exclusive promo to all users who register with our link: Bet $20 and win $100 if the McGregor-Poirier fight goes more than one minute.

Your UFC 264 Betting Guide

The Main Event: McGregor vs. Poirier III

Saturday’s main event will decide the series between the two fighters that currently stands at an even 1-1. It’s also the only reason that anyone besides MMA nerds who can’t let go of their high school wrestling days cares about the fight.

The History Between These Two

While their first fight ended in a 2-minute McGregor knockout of Poirier, that was all the way back in 2014. A lot has happened since then, as we saw this January when Poirier shocked the world (and a stunning 89% of bettors) by eating a series of McGregor punches, attacking with a flurry of leg kicks, and winning by KO in the second round. We did a full recap of how Poirier shocked the world in January, but it’s important to keep two things in mind from their most recent fight in UFC 257.

1. McGregor Was Winning

Predictably, after he was knocked out for the first time in his career, social media jumped all over Conor, telling him he was done, an embarrassment, and a “washed up loser who will never find love and happiness in his life.” That last one might have just been me, but you get the point. While the knockout wasn’t pretty, let’s keep in mind that McGregor was landing punches throughout the entire first round and a half. Poirier himself admitted that Poirier almost knocked him out, saying “he hurt me with the left hand… if I would have gotten hit again, I think I would have been really hurt.” But he didn’t, because….

2. Poirier is Good As Fuck

His win against McGregor was no fluke. Currently the #1 ranked fighter in the lightweight class and #6 in pound-for-pound rankings, Poirer has taken on every fighter thrown at him in the last few years. He’s won 6 of his last 7 bouts, with his only loss coming to the newly retired Khabib Nurmagomedov. He’s one of the most fluid boxers in MMA right now and has very solid ground attacks to complement his upright game.

Keys to Saturday’s Fight

Poirier comes into UFC 264 as a slight favorite after being a heavy underdog in UFC 257 (the Poirer ML was +240 going into the fight, almost double the payout of McGregor to win the first round at +130). Most books are offering the Poirier moneyline at anywhere from -115 to -105 and McGregor from +105 to +110. Look for those odds to shift throughout the next few days. But either way you look at it, this fight's essentially a toss-up and will come down to two main factors.

1. Motivation

A lot is at stake for both fighters on Saturday. Poirer wants to prove January wasn’t an accident and that he’s a legitimate, top-tier fighter in the UFC. A win Saturday will guarantee him a lightweight title bout with Charles Oliveira and guarantee him even more future paydays. He needs this win. McGregor has even more at stake – his career as a serious fighter. McGregor has never lost back-to-back fights in his UFC career, and it’d be a bad time to start now. While he’ll always be a big sell for the sport, it’s hard to really respect a fighter who hasn’t had a legitimate, meaningful win in the UFC since 2016 and lost a boxing match to Floyd Mayweather, the same guy who Logan Paul “tied” a few weeks back. The big question is – does McGregor care? He has built his legacy, he has made a shitload of money, and he can ride off into the sunset with his whiskey business and the ability to appear in 1 or 2 shitty action movies a year. Or did his loss to Poirer piss him off and make him realize that if he doesn’t change his mindset, he won’t be able to afford any more Lamborghinis or sexual assault settlements? If social media is any indication, he seems to be handling the whole fight lead up very maturely. [embed]https://twitter.com/TheNotoriousMMA/status/1412545268696813570[/embed] [embed]https://twitter.com/TheNotoriousMMA/status/1412302012872495106?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1412302012872495106%7Ctwgr%5E%7Ctwcon%5Es1_&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.barstoolsports.com%2Fblog%2F3372394%2Fno-more-mr.-nice-mcgregor[/embed] Sidenote – I can’t decide if that video is intimidating, weird and creepy, or just funny as fuck. Either way, calling Poirier "pea-head" is objectively hilarious and something I’m going to incorporate into my vocabulary moving forward.

2. A New Plan of Attack

While both fighters are good strikers, McGregor has a 2-inch reach advantage and the heavier hand. In their last fight, McGregor came out strong and looked to be going for the first round KO he’s made his trademark before Poirier came back and surprised him with the leg kicks. Poirier won’t have the element of surprise on his side this time around. And McGregor will surely adjust and plan to defend his calves. Will Poirier bring another surprise? Will McGregor switch up his approach or stick to what has worked for him throughout his career? While McGregor has promised a return to his powerful striking that he has made his trademark, expect both fighters to come prepared with a new twist or wrinkle to their game.

My Pick: McGregor by KO/TKO (+140)

Poirier is a great fighter, but Conor just has too much on the line. I picked Poirier to win back in January because I thought Conor wouldn’t come to play, but I was surprised by how good McGregor looked in UFC 257 before he let his guard down. For UFC 264, I think he’ll come out motivated and hungrier than ever, back up his trash talk, and knock out Poirier in the first two rounds.

The Rest of the UFC 264 Main Card

Let’s face it – you’re going to be bored and drunk waiting for the main event to start. You might as well get a little action going while you pound Bud Lights. If you’re a bold man, then you might even parlay a few different fights together and make enough money to buy The Odds Factory, fire every employee, and burn the office to the ground. That’s my dream at least (even though we don’t technically have an office space). But the worst mistake you can make betting UFC is wagering on the undercard with no information. Luckily, I’m here to give you the quick hitters you need for the main card fights that start at 10pm.

Sean O’Malley vs. Kris Moutinho

O’Malley is a crowd favorite, known for his walk-off knockouts that take a page out of Tom Hardy’s character in Warrior’s book. Moutinho has stepped up on short notice for this fight after Louis Smolka contracted a staph infection and had to drop out. He's a good fighter, but O’Malley is just too good, especially with his opponent given less time to train.

The Pick: O’Malley (-900)

Irene Aldana vs. Yana Kunitskaya

Irene Aldana, who lost a lopsided verdict to Holly Holm in 2020, tries to get back to her winning ways when she takes on Yana Kunitskaya, who picked up a unanimous decision in her last outing against Ketlen Vieira. Aldana is favored, but I’m going with the hot fighter here. I’m talking about her fighting record, not her looks, okay pigs?

The Pick: Kunitskaya (-115)

Tai Tuivasa vs. Greg Hardy

Yes, that Greg Hardy – the former Dallas Cowboys defensive end who was essentially blackballed from the NFL after a string of assault cases in 2015 and started fighting UFC in 2016. While he’s a massive dude who has picked up the sport well, he just doesn’t have the experience to really compete against top fighters like Tuivasa.

The Pick: Tuivasa (-118)

Gilbert Burns vs. Stephen Thompson

Probably the best fight outside of the main event, Burns is a strong fighter looking to bounce back after a loss to Usman in the welterweight title bout in February. Thompson is 38 years old, but one of the most accomplished strikers in UFC history and currently #4 in the welterweight division. Expect this one to go more than 3 rounds, but Thompson to pull off the win.

The Pick: Thompson (-120)

Easy Money Promos For UFC 264

Don’t leave money on the table this fight night and hammer these promos from BetMGM, PointsBet, and William Hill.

BetMGM

1. Bet $20 to Win $100 if the fight lasts more than one minute (Exclusive to The Odds Factory readers)
2. McGregor to win in Round 1 (+350): Bet $25 to Win $87.50
3. Poirier to win by submission (+650): Bet $25 to Win $162.50
4. Fight to go the distance (+300): Bet $25 to Win $75

PointsBet

1. Risk-Free First Bet on either fighter up to $25 (get money back if they lose)
2. McGregor to win by KO/TKO (+135): Bet $25 to Win $33.50
3. Poirier to win in Round 1 (+500): Bet $25 to Win $125
4. Fight to end in submission (+475): Bet $25 to Win $118.75

William Hill

1. Bet the moneyline on McGregor vs. Poirier and get up to 100% bonus in free bets back if they win by KO or TKO (Up to $100, the bonus depends on the round of victory)
   1. 1^st Round Win: 100% bonus in free bets (Bet $100, Get $100 back)
   2. 2^nd Round Win: 50% bonus in free bets (Bet $100, Get $50 back)
   3. 3^rd Round Win: 25% bonus in free bets (Bet $100, Get $25 back)
   4. 4^th Round Win: 20% bonus in free bets (Bet $100, Get $20 back)
   5. 5^th Round: 10% bonus in free bets (Bet $100, Get $10 back)
2. Poirier to win by KO, TKO, or DQ (+175): Bet $25 to Win $43.75
3. McGregor to win in Round 2 (+450): Bet $25 to win $112.50
4. Poirier to win and Bryson DeChambeau to win The Open (+3500): Bet $25 to Win $875